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Personally I think this is wrongheaded (similar to the big alien guy [1]) because you don’t really account for your epistemological risk- the risk that the way in which you are thinking about this may be wrong.

More broadly, I suspect that there is a defect in education on this matter. You are commonly given rules and variables, and have to figure out the variables given the rules. But you are usually given all the rules and not typically required to figure them out, and not misled with respect to them.

This is quite different from reality where the rules are often as unknown as the variables, and there can be great uncertainty about what they are.

I wonder if it is a result of institutionalized education that students are not taught to mistrust the rules they are given?

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27359203




No need to go that far. He's just making up the numbers with absolutely zero justification.




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