I'm not sure if Belarussians having to cancel their holidays to the West and going to Crimea instead is going to have the desired effect of driving sympathies among Belarussians toward the west.
Moreover the people who actually like Lukashenko will probably be pretty indifferent to this. They weren't planning on flying to Berlin any time soon. I'm almost certain Putin will jump on the chance to have alternate routes to Russian tourist destinations opened up (possibly even subsidized, like he did for flights to Crimea).
I'm starting to wonder if Lukashenko/Putin wasn't counting on this kind of knee jerk reaction. If sanctions were on the cards anyway, with this stunt they got to pick the timing, reason and type.
The desired effect is to increase pressure on Lukashenko and I'm sure every holidaymaker with a ruined trip knows very well whose stupid stunt is to blame for it.
Holidaymakers who were unlikely to be Lukashenko supporters in the first place and who now can't come home and tell people how great the West is.
I don't think he's losing out that badly here. Indeed, increased isolation from the West may have been a goal from the outset. Having the West do it for him is even better.
> Holidaymakers who were unlikely to be Lukashenko supporters in the first place and who now can't come home and tell people how great the West is.
Now even his supporters have to make every foreign flight through Moscow as a constant reminder of what great relations the potato czar has with rest of the world. Dictatorship are very sensitive to image issues (see Winnie the Pooh).
On the practical side, it starves Belarus of overflying fees. The stunt will cost them hundreds of millions, and hopfully further targeted sanctions will make whatever's left (and funneled into their private accounts by the regime) more difficult to spend.
>Dictatorship are very sensitive to image issues (see Winnie the Pooh).
Of course. That's why they goaded the West into sanctioning them for the most hypocritical reason they could.
"Western hypocrisy" is a key plank of Russian propaganda that works decently well at keeping them suspicious, afraid and angry at us. It's used similarly by Democrats on their base against Republicans and vice versa to great effect at keeping the base fired up.
Belarus is not Russia but I'm sure the same applies there.
>The stunt will cost them hundreds of millions
This is probably why RT stated that Putin was willing to step in to help out financially. I expect that was actually even agreed ahead of time.whol
Lukashenko on the whole would probably prefer that as much foreign aid and investment came from Russia as possible. It's his opponents who will want to demonstrate all the great stuff Western investment can do for the country.
And, of course, Putin would prefer it if we severed links given the strategic importance of the country. He doesn't want another Ukraine.
Moreover the people who actually like Lukashenko will probably be pretty indifferent to this. They weren't planning on flying to Berlin any time soon. I'm almost certain Putin will jump on the chance to have alternate routes to Russian tourist destinations opened up (possibly even subsidized, like he did for flights to Crimea).
I'm starting to wonder if Lukashenko/Putin wasn't counting on this kind of knee jerk reaction. If sanctions were on the cards anyway, with this stunt they got to pick the timing, reason and type.
Edit : not a popular analysis, it seems...