Do you feel like Ark will be able to perform as well as they had in the past in the upcoming years?
Like how does Ark do it? How are they able to perform way better than other investors? Isn't there a mental model that sooner or later they wouldn't be able to have returns higher than market returns
> Isn't there a mental model that sooner or later they wouldn't be able to have returns higher than market returns
Reversion to the mean.
Also survivorship bias: at any given point there is a hotshot fund that outperforms the market, but fast forward five years and it's probably a different fund that did well, and the hotshot fund is underperforming the market, but nobody talks about them anymore.
All that matters is that there is a new golden child to fill financial news bandwith and get people shuffling their money around so the croupier gets paid.
Of course there are outliers like Rentech, but Cathie Wood is not Jim Simons.
Huh, totally forgot about Jim Simons. Thanks for some of the insights, thats a good point
Also thanks for the reminder, funny how following the latest trends and putting my focus onto those kinda made me forgot about all the other hot shots from the past that faded from the spotlight
Early Jan could be sketchy as people sell their best performers to defer taxes on their high gainers.
I would be surprised if ARK didn’t outperform the market average over any 3 year period. But I also worry about Cathie and her team’s continuing motivation after Resolute and Kelso & Company took control of Ark Invest. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cathie and her team issued a new set of replacement ticker symbols under a new name.
Disclaimer: I do hold ARK shares and some bullish options positions.
their conviction on bitcoin, tesla, etc has been a significant driver of their returns. if they can continue being so prescient about controversial investments remains to be seen. not taking any credit away from them - their performance nothing short of phenomenal.
one thing they definitely get right is risk control/management - they cap individual holdings to 10%, so it provides profit-taking and cuts down single-holding risk by design
Like how does Ark do it? How are they able to perform way better than other investors? Isn't there a mental model that sooner or later they wouldn't be able to have returns higher than market returns
Disclaimer: I do hold ARK shares and options