One method I can think of off hand is to de-risk new ideas by triangulating from success already in the market. Use the data that other's have collected to launch their successful thing and show how your feature or product is a combination of things already working. I think PMs who can do that have the "it" factor. It's walking the line between going with gut and not having time/resources/energy to get actual data.
Edit: the “it factor” is that feeling in your heart that you get when you know you are with the right person ... No, with the right software feature.