That isn't necessarily true. Sure, there will probably always be movie theaters in large markets, but there might not be one in every town. It might end up being like seeing live bands in concerts. You might have to live in a top X market or spend hours traveling to one of those markets to see your favorite band play. That makes it an inherently more expensive and rarer experience even if it is still possible.
It also isn't clear what the ramifications of this will be on the movies that actually get made. While I did mention the MCU in that last comment, I am a big fan of the idea of a standalone 90-180 minute movie as an artform. Those standalone movies make even less sense in a streaming world in which retention is the goal. I would be worried that movies become even more and more like TV than the franchise IP wave of the last decade has already caused.
Small Stand-alone movies make more sense in streaming focused worlds, not less. It’s easier to take a risk on a small movie when the effort needed to watch it is less.
I didn't say "small". Streaming can certainly allow a movie with a $1m-10m budget to turn a profit. I am mostly worried about the mid-budget standalone movies that are targeted at adults. Movies like Arrival or Knives out are recent examples. I'm not sure streaming works to the same extent for a $30m-60m movies like that.
It doesn't make sense financially. Arrival had a budget of $47m. The general rule is that marketing budget for a movie is 50% of the production budget. That leaves us at $70.5m to break even. At $15 per month, you need that movie to generate 4.7m new subscriber-months to be worth it. Is releasing Arrival on HBO Max going to be the deciding factor for 4% of US households to subscribe for a month? I doubt it.
