> If you come to a situation where a prize hasn't been claimed and there's few cards left to be sold
You'd have to also account for cases where the prize-winner just hasn't scratched their card yet? (Or, as you say, whether and how this has been accurately reported)
> If that happens you need to do a bit of optimizing risk, assuming you have a limited amount of money to potentially lose. Kelly Criterion will have something to say here.
It seems to make sense that they've set up as an "investment fund", since they need a bunch of cash to buy the tickets in the first place, and even more cash to reduce the fund's risk enough to get an OK from the Kelly Criterion.
(In extreme cases full-Kelly can advise you to borrow cash at your own risk, but the odds have to be wildly in your favour - if they were dependent on one ticket for a net profit, that doesn't appear to be advisable)
You'd have to also account for cases where the prize-winner just hasn't scratched their card yet? (Or, as you say, whether and how this has been accurately reported)
> If that happens you need to do a bit of optimizing risk, assuming you have a limited amount of money to potentially lose. Kelly Criterion will have something to say here.
It seems to make sense that they've set up as an "investment fund", since they need a bunch of cash to buy the tickets in the first place, and even more cash to reduce the fund's risk enough to get an OK from the Kelly Criterion.
(In extreme cases full-Kelly can advise you to borrow cash at your own risk, but the odds have to be wildly in your favour - if they were dependent on one ticket for a net profit, that doesn't appear to be advisable)