1.) Yes, the internet usage penetration rate is still not at 100%, even for the advanced countries. There are still alot of room to grow. However, to start new companies in the current environment and have it go big is very hard. The reason is that internet market itself has matured, and there are plenty of monopolies already. Did you see any new companies blowing up in the last year, even though VC/angel funding have increased dramatically? No, because Facebook, Google, Apple, Zynga, Amazon will either move into the market just as quick, or buy the company out for measly millions before they get big. Look at Zynga dominating the social games, copying competitor's concept, and crushing them. Look at Google snapping up talents and companies left and right, in areas beyond search. Look at Facebook moving into Foursquare, Groupon and Quora's territory. These modern age internet monopolies are scary, having the reach of giants but are as nimble as a ninja, able to focus thousands of programmers onto a market overnight.
2.) Hedge funds are actually decreasing in size, not increasing. [1] In 2011, the hedge funds held a total $1.29 trillion, down from 2008 with $1.93 trillion, down 30%. Even though the stock market is back to its near 2008 high.
3.) Yes, global marketplace. BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) will allow companies to grow even further. Look at China, overtaking US soon as the world's largest economy. Oh wait....Facebook/Twitter/Zynga are banned in China. Oops. And Russia has alot of Facebook/Groupon/Twitter clones too. Doubt the Russian government will let US companies get their hands on Russian people's private information if they get big. Brazil and India....too poor. No way they have money to spend frivilous money on farmville items and facebook ads. Yeah, this globalization thing isn't looking so hot.
Not to mention, we're in the start of a global economic depression. The next 10 years, we will see the following:
- China's shadow banking blows up
- Japan finally succumbs to its own democraphics, and along with losing northeast as its prime food producer and the nuclear crisis and the emergence of other asian exporters, suffers a -5% GDP every year.
- Greece, Portugal, Ireland will leave euro or default, leading to a massive wave of other countries doing the same thing, leading to euro failing and European banks suffering 70-80% loss on loans.
- US dollar resume its decline, and as more countries shift its uses/accumulation of dollar to other safe currencies, resulting in a dollar hyperinflation scenario. Which will be great for US government so they can get out of their $70 trillion obligations to social security/medicare, although US banks have $200 trillion shadow derivatives that will bankrupt them.
So, the next 10 years will be horrible for both founders and VCs
1.) proliferation of Internet access
2.) the rise of the hedge funds
3.) global marketplace
therefore, the glass is half full.
1.) Yes, the internet usage penetration rate is still not at 100%, even for the advanced countries. There are still alot of room to grow. However, to start new companies in the current environment and have it go big is very hard. The reason is that internet market itself has matured, and there are plenty of monopolies already. Did you see any new companies blowing up in the last year, even though VC/angel funding have increased dramatically? No, because Facebook, Google, Apple, Zynga, Amazon will either move into the market just as quick, or buy the company out for measly millions before they get big. Look at Zynga dominating the social games, copying competitor's concept, and crushing them. Look at Google snapping up talents and companies left and right, in areas beyond search. Look at Facebook moving into Foursquare, Groupon and Quora's territory. These modern age internet monopolies are scary, having the reach of giants but are as nimble as a ninja, able to focus thousands of programmers onto a market overnight.
2.) Hedge funds are actually decreasing in size, not increasing. [1] In 2011, the hedge funds held a total $1.29 trillion, down from 2008 with $1.93 trillion, down 30%. Even though the stock market is back to its near 2008 high.
3.) Yes, global marketplace. BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) will allow companies to grow even further. Look at China, overtaking US soon as the world's largest economy. Oh wait....Facebook/Twitter/Zynga are banned in China. Oops. And Russia has alot of Facebook/Groupon/Twitter clones too. Doubt the Russian government will let US companies get their hands on Russian people's private information if they get big. Brazil and India....too poor. No way they have money to spend frivilous money on farmville items and facebook ads. Yeah, this globalization thing isn't looking so hot.
Not to mention, we're in the start of a global economic depression. The next 10 years, we will see the following:
- China's shadow banking blows up
- Japan finally succumbs to its own democraphics, and along with losing northeast as its prime food producer and the nuclear crisis and the emergence of other asian exporters, suffers a -5% GDP every year.
- Greece, Portugal, Ireland will leave euro or default, leading to a massive wave of other countries doing the same thing, leading to euro failing and European banks suffering 70-80% loss on loans.
- US dollar resume its decline, and as more countries shift its uses/accumulation of dollar to other safe currencies, resulting in a dollar hyperinflation scenario. Which will be great for US government so they can get out of their $70 trillion obligations to social security/medicare, although US banks have $200 trillion shadow derivatives that will bankrupt them.
So, the next 10 years will be horrible for both founders and VCs
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_fund#Industry_size