Poor people aren't going to be affected by this. They're not buying new cars. This ban us on the sale of new vehicles, a second hand market will exist after the fact.
The demand for second hand cars is already there. In 2030 people aren't going to turn around and say "wow hmm I all of a sudden want a second hand combustion engine car" and find themselves priced out. The first people to be priced out will be the price who buy cars 2-3 years old and drive them until they need a major repair. Realistically, there's 20 years before the full impact of this policy will be felt at the bottom of the used car market, and the "poor" (who are a large group) will be hit by this law. That means there is 20 years to come up with an incentive or a solve.
It's easy to dismiss progress with a one line snarky quip on the internet, and this is a hugely positive move.
Petrol prices will make running ICE vehicles impractical, seems likely a lot of filling stations will be removed as the forced transition to centrally controlled and permissioned hybrid/EV transportation is gradually increased.
I would guess most people will not buy an used ICE car in 10 years when they can also buy an used electric car. The people into ICE engine sure, but they are not that many and rarely buying economical ICE cars.
My Nissan LEAF (pure EV) is almost 6 years old. It's going to be near-valueless (selling for parts) within another 6 years due to battery degradation [and not starting with that much range in the first place]. That's after one major battery-out warranty repair by Nissan already.
The last two ICE cars I had, I bought them when they were 12 and 9 years old, rather than planning how to get them parted out at that age. I've very much enjoyed having an EV (especially as the guy who turns the wrenches), but they don't last anywhere near as long as ICE cars without major infusions of cash for the battery.
My next car is very likely to be another 6-10 year-old ICE car where I'd probably never consider buying a 6-10 year-old pure EV.
LEAF went the cheap route of battery with bad thermal management. I think current generation of other BEV should get you at least 10 years. Not going to yet match my 16 year old Honda I have in my driveway as my backup car, but getting closer!!
All of that's true, but largely not helpful to the working poor who today can buy pretty reliable 15-20 year old Corollas, Civics, CR-Vs, etc for $1500-3000 and expect to drive them for 5 years or more and have them be every bit as useful at 25 years old as they were when they were 25 months old.
"other BEV should get you at least 10 years" isn't nearly the same as "will get you 25 years if it doesn't rust out or get crashed".
Sure, but do realize those 25 year old cars are likely polluting 2-10x more than modern cars. The sooner we can get the oldest cars off the road, the best chance our planet has.
Looking at wikipedia [0], a 6 year old nissan leaf has a range of 75 miles to start with, and it was a minor iteration on the first generation of the nissan leaf. It looks like 2016 was a major upgrade to the leaf, so I'd be curious what the resale of a 2014 vs 2016 nissan leaf looks like when they're both out of warranty.
> The last two ICE cars I had, I bought them when they were 12 and 9 years old,
You're comparing technology that's had 100 years to develop, with the first iterations of EVs. You're right in that a current 2 year old EV likely has a much lower resale value than a 2 year old ICE vehicle. But remember that the Model S has been on sale for less time than the time between now and when this ban comes into place. Buying a 6 year old EV right now seems like a terrible idea, buying a 6 year old EV in 2035 will likely be a very different story.
I hope your last points are correct as the EV experience has been overall good.
I fear that we might instead have a time period where fundamental battery technology (or our ability to harness it) will not permit a retention of 75% of range over a 20-year period. It might be like the cars of the 50s though 80s which rarely made 250K miles without major engine service.
Cars used to have 5 digit odometers in miles and it was a noteworthy event to “roll one over”. Now, the worst crapbox you can buy will do 100K easily and many of the Japanese imports will do 300K miles with a few external accessories being changed along the way.
The great thing about batteries is that they _should_ be serviceable. It looks like a replacement leaf battery for your car is available for ~5k, which is stupidly expensive for a repair for a 6 year old car (that will hopefully be 8 or 9 years old when you do replace it). One would hope that within 10-15 years that follow up legislation has been passed to either make these parts affordable/user serviceable, or to have them standardised. In an ideal world, all cars would use a standard set of batteries, and instead of waiting 40 minutes for a fast charge, you just "swap" your battery with another one and keep going. 40 minutes later, your old battery is usable by someone else.
Of course, we could find ourselves in an apple-google situation where the cost of the cars themselves is reduced to a price point that a mass market can stomach, and the cars are "disposable". That thought makes me sad.
I think a lot of the disposable nature is related to the auto repair shop rate being $130+/hr to the customer and assembly line labor being $35/hr to the manufacturer. (And of course combined with "people like shiny new stuff".)
It also makes me sad, both from an ecological standpoint, but also from a financial standpoint. I see a lot of people making car payments that are $400+ for 72-month loans. (The average car loan length in 2019 was 69 months for a new car and perhaps an even more astonishing 65 months for used cars.)
Then, because they have a loan, they have to have expensive collision insurance and maybe even gap insurance. Then, because it's an expensive liability they see everyday, they feel like they have to take it to the dealership for repairs (to "protect their 'investment'"). Some people feel like they need to build a little house to protect it (which needs a curb cut and associated extra land usage), etc.
If it were more commonly accepted to drive a "millionaire next door" 15-year old Camry or CR-V, I think we could go easier on the world and on people (maybe except for people who work in the automotive new-car supply chain).
Until then, I can be happy that people buy so many new cars so often, because if they didn't do that, there wouldn't be any cheap used cars for me to buy and DIY-repair to avoid the shop rate and parts markup. :)
I, like 17% of the UK population (approx. 10 million) live in rural areas. I'm six miles from the nearest supermarket and shops and public transport is non-existent. (Once a day type of thing). Prior to lockdown and wfh I was commuting 200 miles a week in a 18 year old Diesel that I bought for £500.I couldn't cycle (too dangerous), walk (too far) or bus (no bus).
Round here many people drive Diesels for their economy (11% extra energy per gallon compared to Petrol) though currently with the Diesel price premium over Petrol being roughly 11% more that's no longer true but diesel engines do last longer.
I'm not opposed to EVs but I don't think there'll be cheap ones like my Diesel if ever or at least for a long long time. And no one has said about future taxes on EVs. All that ICE fuel tax revenue will have to be replaced as it dwindles away. The 800 LB Gorilla in the room that no one mentions is "pay as you drive" I suspect.
Just because the technology doesn't work for 17% of people right now, doesn't mean we can't make an improvement for the other 83%. An anecdote, but I live in a city centre, quite close to a primary school. There are multiple range rovers parked outside in the mornings and afternoons. Living in edinburgh, your primary school is assigned based on your post code, so these kids are being driven less than a mile to school in 2L SUVs, in an area where the roads are gritted, and it's snowed a handful of times in the 7 years I've lived here. From speaking to my neighbors, most of the trips my neighbors make are less than 10 miles, and even at that, it's only an occasional 30-40 mile trip to one of the nearer seaside areas. _all_ of these trips are feasible with an EV.
> but diesel engines do last longer.
"Longer" kind of doesn't matter these days. Sure, a diesel engine will literally never die, however my first car was a 1.4L peugeot with 260,000 miles on it. The engine and chassis were the only parts that hadn't been replaced by the time I got it, which is 25 years of your current mileage.
> I'm not opposed to EVs but I don't think there'll be cheap ones like my Diesel if ever or at least for a long long time.
A person commuting 200 miles per week, driving an old, heavily polluting car is likely to be one of the most affected by these changes. People with your driving habits are the reason that regulations like this have to exist in these forms. Poeple will hyper=optimise for their own benefit, as all of the externalities aren't costed. At the very least, buy a post-2008 diesel with a DPF in it.
True. I checked a better route planner, a great app to plan electric vehicles trips, and driving from Brighton to Glasgow today in 2020 is 7h10m of driving and 36m of charging with a tesla model 3. Let's round up to 1h of charging. I don't think it is a problem today, and even less in 10 years with better cars and a bigger charging network. Sure you may lose some time because you will have slightly longer breaks, but it's fine in my opinion and don't forget that electricity is cheaper than gaz (unless you charge to 100% on Ionity without using a car from a Ionity constructor).
Uncontrolled mass migration (Thanks Tony Blair) under New Labour added five million people over a ten year period. Guess what, many drive cars. So yes, it has affected transport.
When I see people blame more drivers for traffic, the only culprit I can see is a failure to extend public transit accordingly. A huge number of people drive in New York, for example, for lack of a better alternative, not because driving is more convenient, cheaper, or in any other way better for them. Blaming car traffic on the number of people in a densely populated area is futile, and any place that has grown reasonably with its population has also abandoned the notion that cars should be the default mode of transportation.
Carless household # has been increasing in the uk. Helping the poor by enabling them to buy new fossil cars after 2030 won't have very good bang for the buck.
Rich people: meh, this won’t change our lives much
Poor people: SOL