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> It’s not in Apple’s interest to do it.

I think an argument can be construed that (one of) Apple's interests is to control what and how users can do on Apple devices. iOS-like lockdown seems entirely in line with that.

> Going Mac App Store only would drive tons of developers off the platform and do absolutely nothing to increase sales on the Store anyway.

And others would fill in the gap. The Store sales would inevitably have to go up – it would become the only way to get software on the device. Not like every user would immediately drop the Mac. I can imagine a non-trivial fraction of users wouldn't even notice that something has changed.

It wouldn't happen right next year, or in one go, but the more I think, the more I am growing convinced that it's sneaking up.

> It would be widely panned as a ham-fisted move.

If it doesn't affect the bottom line, it doesn't really matter. They got away with 4 years of perhaps the worst laptop keyboard of the decade; are getting away with inflicting the TouchBar price tag on tens of thousands of users(1), making devices unserviceable, and even with the matter in question.

Given Apple's size and user base, I'm afraid that outside of straight-up illegal activity, there's little Apple can't get away with. Especially if the janky move is factored into small, cruddy steps.

(1) I realize it's a lame point, but it annoys me personally




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