I don't think Intel is out of things. Apple's M1 chip on preliminary analysis looks like a huge game changer.... for Apple. They don't have much of a history of licensing their tech (except for a disastrous period of Mac clones waaay back) so I don't see the M1 disrupting the notebook/desktop market.
That leaves AMD. AMD Isn't eating Intel's lunch, they've had a pretty good taste of it and are about to say "no, not just lunch, we're taking all the food".
But there's a window. My not-very-expert opinion is that the window is 2 years. That's how long Intel has, while AMD chips away its market share with new installed systems, to turn things around. If they do it, they'll still have to claw back their previous position, or there will simply be a new stable equilibrium, but I think Intel's dominance in the server & consumer-grade space gives them some breathing room.
In the consumer space, shoppers for high end systems e.g., gaming etc are gone: AMD has them now, and more every day. They have me, that's for sure. But the much much larger consumer market is not in gaming. Intel has the name recognition for the average consumer, and it's their hardware in most consumer grade systems. A quick glance at a dozen consumer grade laptops & desktops from HP & Dell don't show any AMD CPUs in them.
So, Intel still has that level of inertia. If they can limit the bleeding in server & high end systems to a rapid bleed-out instead of a near instant & complete gushing torrent, that inertia may be enough to allow them to claw things back if they're able to execute within the next two years.
I'm no Intel fanboi: They lost me unless/until they turn things around. And from where they are now, I don't rate their chance more than 50/50, which might be generous. But I do think they've still got 2 years until their viability is really threatened. At that point, and I'm sure they've got some skunkworks & low-profile conversations going on about this already, they'll need to look at offloading high performance fabs to TSMC.
Personally, from a global strategy standpoint, I think the US might not want to lose what is really a strategic asset that way though, so we could also see some type of subsidy/bailout/whatever to prop them up.
That leaves AMD. AMD Isn't eating Intel's lunch, they've had a pretty good taste of it and are about to say "no, not just lunch, we're taking all the food".
But there's a window. My not-very-expert opinion is that the window is 2 years. That's how long Intel has, while AMD chips away its market share with new installed systems, to turn things around. If they do it, they'll still have to claw back their previous position, or there will simply be a new stable equilibrium, but I think Intel's dominance in the server & consumer-grade space gives them some breathing room.
In the consumer space, shoppers for high end systems e.g., gaming etc are gone: AMD has them now, and more every day. They have me, that's for sure. But the much much larger consumer market is not in gaming. Intel has the name recognition for the average consumer, and it's their hardware in most consumer grade systems. A quick glance at a dozen consumer grade laptops & desktops from HP & Dell don't show any AMD CPUs in them.
So, Intel still has that level of inertia. If they can limit the bleeding in server & high end systems to a rapid bleed-out instead of a near instant & complete gushing torrent, that inertia may be enough to allow them to claw things back if they're able to execute within the next two years.
I'm no Intel fanboi: They lost me unless/until they turn things around. And from where they are now, I don't rate their chance more than 50/50, which might be generous. But I do think they've still got 2 years until their viability is really threatened. At that point, and I'm sure they've got some skunkworks & low-profile conversations going on about this already, they'll need to look at offloading high performance fabs to TSMC.
Personally, from a global strategy standpoint, I think the US might not want to lose what is really a strategic asset that way though, so we could also see some type of subsidy/bailout/whatever to prop them up.