It's interesting to think about how covid interacts with this theory. Turchin suggests three major conditions that contribute to decline:
1. Overproduction of aspiring elites
2. Decline of living standards
3. Explosion of public debt
The pandemic could accelerate 2 and 3 in many parts of the world: governments are spending huge amounts of public money to cushion the economic blow, but they are unlikely to do so completely and it could take years for living standards to recover.
1. Overproduction of aspiring elites
2. Decline of living standards
3. Explosion of public debt
The pandemic could accelerate 2 and 3 in many parts of the world: governments are spending huge amounts of public money to cushion the economic blow, but they are unlikely to do so completely and it could take years for living standards to recover.