On: The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse

[js8]

The hypothesis "if I come too close to this ledge, I will fall into the precipice" is falsifiable. The question is, do we really want to test (falsify) it?

It seems to me when it comes to threat of civilization(al) collapse, we will have to accept incomplete evidence.

[dredmorbius → js8]

The principle strength of history is in providing a set of extant examples. There's the risk of overfitting, but models can be tested.

Present-day models are at least exogenous to the past, if not its present interpretation.