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The math might be right but it doesn’t make the theory or assumptions correct.

GIGO is always an issue, especially in field where it’s very hard to make unbiased measurements of anything.

We have the same thing in economics our models that explain things in hindsight are actually quite good but their predictive power is often at the level of reading tea leaves and chicken bones.




GIGO == garbage in, garbage out


There are a few hints in the article that might suggest Turchin is pre-cultivating his data. It smells like p-hacking, honestly.




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