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Paul Saffo writes, "I will force myself to make a tentative forecast based on the information available, and then systematically tear it apart."

That's similar in spirit to scientific method: Formulate a hypothesis and then set out to disprove it. (Overly simplified, of course.)

So, there's definitely something here. But in my experience, the phrase "Strong Opinions, Weakly Held" is mostly just used to excuse bad behaviors.




> That's similar in spirit to scientific method

Yes! I think that science also demonstrates how Bayesianism, the author's proposed remedy, misses the point somewhat.

What probability do I put on my belief in quantum mechanics? Zero! It has to be wrong, because it doesn't account for gravity. On the other hand, I'd bet on it for every question it can answer.

Scientific theories are the strongest opinions of all. If you can imagine how the laws of physics, the antiquity of Earth, or natural selection could possibly be wrong, you don't understand them. But, historically, those theories replaced previous theories, which were strongly accepted in their day, and did turn out to be wrong.

There is no way that some theories could possibly be wrong, but it's almost certain that some of those theories are wrong. This is about a deeper type of uncertainty than probability can describe.




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