On: The world should think better about catastrophic a...

[refurb]

So did Bill Gates, but predicting “a disease epidemic will hit us and have severe consequences” is a pretty sure bet and not that impressive.

[landryraccoon → refurb]

It sounds impressive considering that politicians argued (and still argue, like in the case of Brazil) that it's not severe and we are still overreacting in the middle of people dying.

[mike_ivanov → refurb]

That's exactly the point: if it IS easily predictable, it's NOT a black swan.