This is the only thing I fault my own government for. They reacted, and reasonably well but two weeks too late thinking it might blow over. Respect the exponential function or you'll end up paying for it.
Models are the best we have. And if we compare the UK with countries that reacted faster then it seems likely that a lot of deaths could have been prevented.
If you compare the UK to places that didn't lock down and have had very few deaths you can conclude the opposite. That's why you shouldn't cherry pick your data points.
Many people created models of the spread of Covid. Some of these models worked very well and others were terribly inaccurate. We should use the models that work and not those that have lost all credibility.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/10/uk-coronavirus...