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> Maybe not so good for those who were especially attached to...the vibrant city life

I think it's good for those people too, because urban housing prices will also go down as people move away. It could become more affordable to have that vibrant city life alongside the others who actually want to be there and don't just have to be there.

I'd personally be really excited to see Austin's skyrocketing growth and gentrification take a hard slowdown. So many of the locals and local businesses that made Austin so charming and "weird" in the first place have been driven out by the swelling cost of living.




Anecdata here. I just rented out my house in Austin last week. We had 14 people vying to sign a lease, and several wanted to bid above the price we are renting for. The real sticker - 10/14 were moving from SF/LA/NY because they can now work from home. Our rent is above market in Austin, but way below what they are used to paying.

All that to say, you may see the opposite of a slowdown.


Wait until the pay cuts for remote workers hit.


Not to mention the crunch when only ~5% more jobs go full remote in the next few years instead of the "anticipated" 40%.


  moving from SF/LA/NY
I bet state and city Income tax was a factor.


Sigh.


Change is inevitable. What's awesome now might be crap in the future and today's garbage might be the future's treasure.


My point was that a lot of those trendy bars, restaurants, etc. may no longer exist if a lot of people who can afford to move away. A lot of the elements of city life in say NYC or Boston in the 1990s were a lot different from today.

But, to your point, yeah a return to a more gritty and bohemian version of urban life would be appealing to some.


Personally I miss the dives, the open mic nights, the hole-in-the-wall restaurants that have been slowly getting replaced with gleaming Ikea-fever-dream "fast-casual artisan eateries" and the like.

(If I'm being honest the latter have a certain appeal to me too, but I think it's a travesty when they supplant things that are irreplaceably more human)


LA is actually good for this, because despite a few rich neighborhoods, it’s primarily an immigrant and working class city.

I grew up in the Midwest, which people romanticize as the real America, small town life, etc. But now it’s mostly strip malls, chain stores, and deranged, adversarial politics. In LA, by contrast, I could find a small, locally-owned business for just about any service or need and people were friendly and accepting of everyone.

If you can separate yourself out from the Hollywood BS and gentrified neighborhoods, it’s really a great place.


The old guard of restaurants in LA haven't really been touched by the new wave of gentrification. Tito's, Phillipe's, The Pantry, etc.. All packed every night, and haven't changed a thing in decades. (I guess Tito's finally accepts credit cards, so some change is ok...)


I flew into LA late one night for an interview, and decided to get a burger at the Pantry. I felt sick from the gutbuster all the way through the interview the next day and didn't get the job.

Live and learn.


This is what most people are referring to when they say “cosmopolitan.”

Where you have the perfect stew composed of a high mixture of all walks of life, from economic background, educational background, ethnic background, cultural background, etc..., and until someone figures out how to combat the change, it always seems to be overrun by gentrification.

I’ve seen a few higher reaching accounts over the past couple of years saying, “When you make improvements to your community, always be aware the actions you take may attract gentrification which will decimate the community you’re trying to build and price you out in the process. You could be improving yourself right out of your house or business. Build that community but beware of gentrification.”

I’ve seen gentrification happen in a couple of places, but one of the most stark examples has to have been Portland, OR.

I know multiple people who have moved from California to Portland like 4 years ago. When visiting, they raved about how amazing all of the small little shops were, how green everything was, all of the amazing little restaurants, how many people walk/biked everywhere, the lack pretentiousness, how everyone preferred dive bars, etc...

Many of those same people who have moved here now variously complain about the people who walk/bike, drive or take ubers the mile or so to work, complain about the lack of parking, don’t shop at any of the little stores, drive 15 minutes out of the city to shop at big box stores, and seem enraged they cant find clubs that only allow in “beautiful people.”

I know Portland isn’t the only place to experience this and to be clear, I’m not trying to shame them, but I’ll never understand how someone can like a place so much, they go out of their way to hunt for a new job, pick up and move to an entirely new city, and then complain or refuse to do the things which it takes to maintain that which made you fall in love with a place.

I think many of the people which cause gentrification, they see the cosmopolitan nature of a place, love it, and then want to make it exactly like the place they left.

Prior to coming back to Portland, I lived on a Caribbean island for a couple years for a work project, and I saw first hand how adamant they are at pushing back against newcomers trying to change the culture which make the place so beautiful in the first place. I think they understand on a gut level how attempts to make something more like some other place has ripple effects and those usually lead to economics which price out the good stuff.

The worst part is, when we see a place that has a vibrant community, with open mic nights, and cute little shops with locals who own the shops etc..., those communities spent decades making their own little spaces in their image and people move in and just don’t adapt.

I mean some people just prefer living a suburban existence, and that’s OK. Plenty of people are proud to be rural, plenty of people who are proud to be cosmopolitan, why not just be proud to prefer suburbs. We all have different preferences, we don’t need to force cosmopolitan areas to lose all resemblance of itself when there’s already a place tailor made for people who prefer strip malls where parking lots seem to always be 90% unoccupied.

Sorry for the ramble, I’ve just seen gentrification decimate cosmopolitan communities that spent decades building them up and force lifetime old residents and businesses out time and time again, only for the new residents to complain about the very cosmopolitanism they loved in the first place and before ya know it, its looks shockingly like the suburb which is a mere minutes away.


Gentrification happens because a demand boom hits a supply shock. If the supply shocks don't happen, the price doesn't change and people don't have a reason to move out in the first place.

But another thing to keep in mind is that things change constantly. The reason why a cute cultural enclave is not anymore might of been because of a disaster back at the home country isn't happening anymore and the second generation kids are all now doctors and engineers now.

The opposite of gentrification can happen too (ex detroit), and TBH it's even worse. The only thing that you can guarantee is that the city and culture you grew up with will not be the same city 10 or 50 years later in many ways.


If you've read Heather Marsh this observation maps well to her writing on endogroups [0]: cosmopolitan life is exosocial, with many permeable boundaries. This attracts everyone, which means it attracts endoselves too. They walk into the space and start remaking it around them, and pretty soon the cosmopolitan life stops, replaced with reenforcement of some endogroup dynamic, which is of course bland and sterile.

The power of the big city - and why it's associated with the cosmopolitan - is that it provides a space too large for any endogroup to fully dominate, and an allowance for the exceptional case.

[0] Outlined in detail in The Creation of Me, Them and Us. But briefer versions can be found in her blog: https://georgiebc.wordpress.com/


>I’ll never understand how someone can like a place so much, they go out of their way to hunt for a new job, pick up and move to an entirely new city, and then complain or refuse to do the things which it takes to maintain that which made you fall in love with a place.

Because most people are consumers, not creators, and when an excessive amount of consumers enters a space that previously had a balance between consumers and creators, the prices get bid up and the imbalance results in a situation where people drive 15 minutes to go to the big box store.

The consumers wanted to consume the convenience of the little shops, but not in sufficient quantities to continue to make it a viable business in the face of rising demand from other consumers coming in also to consume the convenience of the little shops. Hence you end up at a new economic equilibrium where the big box stores are the only ones left.

Then, if society is lucky, the intial and boundary conditions will allow for a new place to reach a balance between consumers and creators, and rinse, repeat.

This is also a little bit related to this theory:

https://meaningness.com/geeks-mops-sociopaths/what-is-meanin...


If this faux, urban dive, chic finally dies I think we're all better off. My corner bar used to be frequented by construction workers and longshoremen. Then the neighborhood by the port was gentrified. The bar with the $1 draft beers gave way to the $7 IPAs. Finger foods such as tacos and empanadas gave way to $3 tacos and $15 quesadillas! Now I drink and eat at home because all the bars went way upmarket and no way am i paying Disneyland prices in a fucking dive bar.


Just a word of caution as someone who has went from D.C. to small town: It can also be not so good if you come with your previous political beliefs. Big coastal city politics are _very_ unpopular in smaller towns (not here to discuss the merits, just stating the reality). You won't make very many friends. Smaller towns don't have the same issues big cities do, so naturally it will require a different approach and way of thinking.


Maybe just don't lead with "I'm from the big city, hate guns, and love abortion" when introducing yourself to your new neighbors.


Well, no one would actually lead with that, but I've met people in the Bay that have lead with "What are your pronouns?" and "How do you identify?", either of which may make for an awkward (or worse) first impression in a lot of other places.


In much of the country, the first question you are asked is "What church do you go to?", and responding "I don't" is going to make you a pariah.


Are you sure you have lived in the country? It doesn't make you a pariah, it makes you the target of lots of pamphlets to come to their Church. There are plenty of people who don't go to Church in the country.

And get this, there's bars too!!! With real alcohol!


For people who don't live or haven't been to the bay area recently: Nobody does the 'what are you pronouns?' as a party icebreaker in the average bay area population. The people who do travel in very, very specific social circles.


Agreed. I've seen this in the US and Canada, but in places that were 1) very bourgeoisie, very white, and pseudo-leftist, and 2) near a university of some sort.

Not a thing in the rest of the country, or even in very leftest areas.


I want to refuse to believe that this actually occurs...


I have been to the Bay Area (10 years ago) and didn't have this problem, but going there soon, can I just say 'A copper pipe' or whatnot or that will hurt their sensitive souls?

FFS, just ask who they are, what they like to do and see if there is something in common. This politica bullshit really need to end (it is ok for more close relationships, but if the first question I get is if I am Right or Left, I will just insult he person somehow)


> can I just say 'A copper pipe' or whatnot or that will hurt their sensitive souls?

I believe the common trolling method is to identify as an "apache attach helicopter", pronouns vrrrrr/bang


I’ve never heard anyone say they love abortion. They love the ability for women to have the freedom to choose abortion, and what they want to do with their body. I also prefer “anti choice” for those who oppose others having that freedom.


Probably same effect.


I think the general feeling is, "don't bring your political beliefs with you and create the same mess here that you just left."


That's an important thing to understand and really internalize.

What makes sense in a city context doesn't always make sense in a town context. And what makes sense in a town doesn't always make sense in a city. The difference is huge, to the point that the best approach can be the opposite.

I think this is at the crux of a lot of the country's polarization and inability to understand the other side.


Politics in general is less of a thing in smaller towns. My voting precinct (not even a small town, the suburbs of Annapolis) is roughly 2/3 Trump, 1/3 Clinton. I have no idea who is who, and it’s never come up.


Everyone thinks you live in a small town if you move to the Midwest. I moved to Des Moines and my aunt was talking about how her grandma knew everyone in her town like I could relate to it. The Des Moines metro area has a population of 650k people. And half of those people have trump derangement syndrome just as badly as rich coastal people.




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