The "checkbox degree" hypothesis is mostly false. Some companies do require a degrees, yes. But that's a minimum requirement. Literally zero companies promise a job to everyone with a degree.
It's a bit difficult for me to believe that there are highly competent people who would be effective employees now, but for whom cheating is easier than doing the work. Remember: cheating (without getting caught) takes time too.
I can write a few page essay on any given topic much faster than I can figure out how to copy/pasta that essay without getting caught.
I can implement most undergraduate programming assignments faster than I can figure out how obfuscate someone else's code enough to fool cheat detectors.
Etc.
The subset of people who are truly competent but for whom cheating is easier than doing the work has to be vanishingly small.
It's a bit difficult for me to believe that there are highly competent people who would be effective employees now, but for whom cheating is easier than doing the work. Remember: cheating (without getting caught) takes time too.
I can write a few page essay on any given topic much faster than I can figure out how to copy/pasta that essay without getting caught.
I can implement most undergraduate programming assignments faster than I can figure out how obfuscate someone else's code enough to fool cheat detectors.
Etc.
The subset of people who are truly competent but for whom cheating is easier than doing the work has to be vanishingly small.