> the underlying business didn't suddenly become nonviable
They may have. We don't know when or if things will go back to the way they were before March 2020 and how consumer and employer behavior will change.
For example, maybe movie theaters are completely screwed. Except as a novelty, the big business chains may not survive. Universal Studios is already pushing back on theater release windows and no live-action movies are being filmed right now, and who knows for how long that lasts. Will the public feel safe enough to go back into theaters all at once before theaters run out of money as if nothing happened? I imagine some of those jobs at least are permanently gone.
Employers will probably maintain work from home and cut back on office space. All those jobs that support maintaining offices may not come back either.
I don't think the restaurant business will jump back either, people can't just restart their failed restaurant as if they didn't lose all that money they needed to keep their already slim margin business open before the pandemic.
Things are going back to how things were in March 2020 very quickly [1] [2]
As an aside, I’ve stopped being surprised with how out of touch and in a bubble HN posts are. There’s so much understanding of human nature out there that is missing here.
> I’ve stopped being surprised with how out of touch and in a bubble HN posts are.
I step away from the site every few days to help stay centered.
I hope things return to normal as quickly as possible, our economy depends on it. Very few people can afford to weather this without a strong economy.
In the US when you lose your job you lose your healthcare too. Healthcare can’t be fixed in a hurry but we can all agree to be reasonable and keep as many people working as we can.
These types of people predict the worst so that they are never wrong on the downside. That’s why the initial death projection was 2m people. Imagine if they instead predicted 1000 deaths.
Same stuff happens with global warming preds. You’re getting the worst case, x100, every time.
Right - we saw a lot of businesses lose 80+% of their customers before any shelter in place orders were mandated. In low margin places like bars and restaurants, it's highly unlikely many can survive with even 75% of their normal level of business.
That just means prices will go up. Nothing is certain, of course, but those prices are low mostly because of high competition, not because people are unable to pay.
There will certainly be a bit of both, but it's not like you won't be able to find a restaurant after the pandemic.
> Employers will probably maintain work from home and cut back on office space. All those jobs that support maintaining offices may not come back either.
I think there will be a greater demand for office real estate because suddenly everyone needs double the space and (spacious) cubicles or standalone offices will make a comeback.
> Will the public feel safe enough to go back into theaters all at once before theaters run out of money as if nothing happened?
the need for theatres and cinemas have not disappeared. They will come back once the virus situation is under control (in say 2-4 yrs time, when vaccine is available). Therefore, the jobs will come back in 2-4 yrs time.
The companies will have been different - the old incumbents will have bankrupted by then. But that doesn't matter - as long as there is new investment, new companies will spring up to soak up the demand.
Same with office spaces. It's not like the need for office space will disappear indefinitely.
>Same with office spaces. It's not like the need for office space will disappear indefinitely.
There is an arguable difference here, a lot of people were willing to WFH before the crisis, but most businesses didn't allow it. A crisis like this, forcing businesses to accept WFH, has the side benefit of doing a large experiment where business owners see whether WFH works for them, maybe even has good sides to it, but also what's negative about it.
Before, many employers were just apprehensive and would only think about this in theory. Many now see in practice what they were afraid about, and maybe they're not as afraid anymore.
So maybe office space will rebound, but maybe not. I'm quite sure in my city most office jobs are doable from home, however for meetings we might get back to some balanced level of WFH + office work. But it may never rebound to pre-crisis levels.
They may have. We don't know when or if things will go back to the way they were before March 2020 and how consumer and employer behavior will change.
For example, maybe movie theaters are completely screwed. Except as a novelty, the big business chains may not survive. Universal Studios is already pushing back on theater release windows and no live-action movies are being filmed right now, and who knows for how long that lasts. Will the public feel safe enough to go back into theaters all at once before theaters run out of money as if nothing happened? I imagine some of those jobs at least are permanently gone.
Employers will probably maintain work from home and cut back on office space. All those jobs that support maintaining offices may not come back either.
I don't think the restaurant business will jump back either, people can't just restart their failed restaurant as if they didn't lose all that money they needed to keep their already slim margin business open before the pandemic.