Here is the map [1]. The Aleutian islands are hit first, but it seems the big effect is the slowing-down of the wave in very shallow waters. (Here's depth maps: [2][3]). Note the contours -- it takes ~9 hours for the tsunami to cross this small sea (Bering), the same time as it takes to cross the entire Pacific from Japan to British Columbia.
According to [4], shallow-water waves (including tsunamis) have speed proportional to sqrt(depth). Not sure how accurate this approximation is, but it seems to get the order-of-magnitude right.
This FAQ [5] says that much of the energy should be reflected off the continental slope (where it goes from deep to shallow abruptly), so the tsunamis there should be pretty small. The tsunami height-forecast [6] says the same thing.
It would be advisable that if you are not directly affected, you should avoid hitting these links. The most important information appears to be static files, but it would be a horrible tragedy if affected visitors were unable to get the information they need because server capacity was exceeded. I carelessly clicked the link to the high-res map in a link above, only to find the server over capacity.
San Francisco danger is now over. I'm on a Search and Rescue team that was called up by the Sheriff's Office to be on call, but nothing notable happened and everyone is going home.
The Santa Cruz newspaper claims it will be quite small in the bay area, fortunately:
The warning covers coastal areas between Point Concepcion to the Oregon-Washington border. While the warning does encourage people in low-lying areas to move inland, officials don't expect the wave that hits the California Coast to be much more than a foot.
Surges could reach three to seven feet along the California, Oregon and Washington coasts. Southern California is expected to be hit by three-foot waves, the authorities said.
According to the linked message, it's still a "watch" for the west coast (including SF), which is "issued to areas which will not be immediately impacted by the tsunami." I don't see where on the page it was upgraded. Can someone point this out?
Yeah, I couldn't update the URL properly. http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/ is the latest at all times. I'm going to go to bed soon and get up early; I don't anticipate danger here, but it's possible there will be some evacuation downhill from me (94116).
Saturday or Friday? According to the linked page it should begin arriving in Alaska 2 minutes ago, but the list of "Estimated tsunami arrival times" seems to be an empty file.
Friday. Sorry, it's been a long day. I live on the west side of SF near the ocean; danger unlikely at my elevation, but they're deploying police to keep people away from the beach.
With luck, they're erring on the side of caution; low tide is about 10:30am, so flooding seems unlikely...but this is such a rare event that it's a total guess. Just keep an eye on the weather sites and hope news from Hawaii is not too bad.
I live on Ocean Beach in San Francisco, and apparently there is nothing to worry about, other than to stay off the beach. I'll keep you all posted if things get crazy.
http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/2011/03/11/lhvpd9/01/webetalhvpd9...
Who will be destroyed:
http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2009/12/san_franciscos_ts...