What you're saying makes sense, but I think you're underestimating two huge factors:
1. Brand loyalty of Apple users (especially developers)
2. Willingness to "make it work"
It would take an outright explicit declaration of pure hostility from APple to damage that loyalty, and even then I don't know if it would (and of course Apple won't do that). There are also a lot of very clever people that will hack on the system until they get it working, and as long as something works, even with horrendous under-the-hood complexity and terrible performance, that will be enough to keep those people on the platform.
There will be some people (like me) who don't put up with that, but all of those people that I know left for Linux (or WSL on Windows) a long time ago.
1. Brand loyalty of Apple users (especially developers)
2. Willingness to "make it work"
It would take an outright explicit declaration of pure hostility from APple to damage that loyalty, and even then I don't know if it would (and of course Apple won't do that). There are also a lot of very clever people that will hack on the system until they get it working, and as long as something works, even with horrendous under-the-hood complexity and terrible performance, that will be enough to keep those people on the platform.
There will be some people (like me) who don't put up with that, but all of those people that I know left for Linux (or WSL on Windows) a long time ago.