It is a monumental assumption that people are career driven enough to keep working once there is a UBI in effect. Especially considering that people are career driven to provide for their families, and the UBI essentially makes that a non-issue. But let's hang on to that general assumption, and think about some specific examples where UBI will undeniably have an impact.
Many people will work fewer hours or quit their second jobs. Currently 7 million workers have a second job.[1]
Young people graduating from high school and college would have a greatly diminished incentive to enter the workforce. Why get a job at all when you can shack up with your buds, pool your UBI, and have all the money you need for booze and video games? Many will fall into this trap temporarily, some permanently.
Millions of creatives who want to work on their music or write the next great american novel are out on day one.
How about the folks currently working to supplement Social Security? Currently, 10 million people over 65 are still working[0]. How many of them quit their jobs on day one of UBI?
Millions of working moms are out on day one.
The biggest issue will be the fact that UBI will make retirement instantly possible for many, and much easier for many more. Currently, to retire with an income of 40K, you would need a nest-egg of $1.3M (assuming a conservative withdrawal rate of 3% annually and no social security). But if you're guaranteed a UBI of 12K per year, a married couple receiving 24K per year in guaranteed income is able to retire with a nest-egg of only 533K. Tens of millions of the most productive workers in the economy will be ready for retirement decades ahead of schedule.
None of these things are necessarily bad--I'd love to be able to retire a decade ahead of schedule! But when the workforce is significantly reduced in size while spending is dramatically increased, taxes will necessarily skyrocket, the incentive to work will plummet even further, and the resulting feedback loop will hollow-out the workforce and bring the economy to a screeching halt.
Many people will work fewer hours or quit their second jobs. Currently 7 million workers have a second job.[1]
Young people graduating from high school and college would have a greatly diminished incentive to enter the workforce. Why get a job at all when you can shack up with your buds, pool your UBI, and have all the money you need for booze and video games? Many will fall into this trap temporarily, some permanently.
Millions of creatives who want to work on their music or write the next great american novel are out on day one.
How about the folks currently working to supplement Social Security? Currently, 10 million people over 65 are still working[0]. How many of them quit their jobs on day one of UBI?
Millions of working moms are out on day one.
The biggest issue will be the fact that UBI will make retirement instantly possible for many, and much easier for many more. Currently, to retire with an income of 40K, you would need a nest-egg of $1.3M (assuming a conservative withdrawal rate of 3% annually and no social security). But if you're guaranteed a UBI of 12K per year, a married couple receiving 24K per year in guaranteed income is able to retire with a nest-egg of only 533K. Tens of millions of the most productive workers in the economy will be ready for retirement decades ahead of schedule.
None of these things are necessarily bad--I'd love to be able to retire a decade ahead of schedule! But when the workforce is significantly reduced in size while spending is dramatically increased, taxes will necessarily skyrocket, the incentive to work will plummet even further, and the resulting feedback loop will hollow-out the workforce and bring the economy to a screeching halt.
[0] https://unitedincome.capitalone.com/library/older-americans-... [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/does-everyone-have-two-jobs-153...