> If you prepare for it, then you are acting as if you think it will happen.
That isn't the case. Preparation isn't a binary state either - people can be more or less prepared for an occurrence. The estimated likelihood of an event changes how much time and effort should be spent preparing to it.
There is a big difference in how people behave if they thing there is a 0%, 0.05% or 98% chance of being mugged when they go outside for example. The 0.05% case would rationally start avoiding people late at night or not carrying valuables. The 98% person would not go outside.
That isn't the case. Preparation isn't a binary state either - people can be more or less prepared for an occurrence. The estimated likelihood of an event changes how much time and effort should be spent preparing to it.
There is a big difference in how people behave if they thing there is a 0%, 0.05% or 98% chance of being mugged when they go outside for example. The 0.05% case would rationally start avoiding people late at night or not carrying valuables. The 98% person would not go outside.