That’s spot on, and a great comment on times of crisis in general. In times of peace, leaders in most fields are not chosen for their ability to quickly make the best decision from uncertain data.
There are a few exceptions, e.g. some military commanders with real field experience. Some stock market speculators. A rare few skilled politicians. But the vast majority know the tools, rituals and heuristics of their trade, and apply them blindly. This normally works well. But during times of crisis, when knowledge is uncertain and data changes rapidly, it leads to huge mistakes. Like clockwork, one after the other.
I could go on and on about examples of this from different fields, observed only during the last 6 weeks.
There are a few exceptions, e.g. some military commanders with real field experience. Some stock market speculators. A rare few skilled politicians. But the vast majority know the tools, rituals and heuristics of their trade, and apply them blindly. This normally works well. But during times of crisis, when knowledge is uncertain and data changes rapidly, it leads to huge mistakes. Like clockwork, one after the other.
I could go on and on about examples of this from different fields, observed only during the last 6 weeks.