True story: Intrade let you bet on the swine flu count, as reported in major media sources, and I bet that there would be 50,000 cases in the US by the end of June 2009. Then they changed it to "CDC official count" before the bet resolved, and the CDC decided to stop updating it, so I lost the bet even though there were 50k cases by the terms of the original bet.
Were they allowed to do that under the terms of the contract or something like that? If not, it sounds like fraud. If so, it sounds like a way to never make any significant payouts...
I still play on GJOpen if not only because the variety of topics is greater but I also like some of the players there and what they have to say. Brier score approaches also feel more rigorous.
