Even if we consider a global lockdown impact of 3-4 months, the fall in output should be roughly between 25-30%. The best case could be 13.4% i.e 3.3-16.7(for 2 months)
Not an economist, but I don't understand how they calculate just 3%
Further, when this is over, I think the crisis will lead into a geopolitical crisis. Also it is good to assume that multiple countries will not let China (govt) simply get away with this. There could be policies that can end up resulting into collateral damage
All productive output doesn't stop during a lockdown. And not all of the world is locked down, including China, the second largest economy in the world.
You are right, we have at least 20-30% productivity in lockdowns. But most large economies are in lockdown and China is just 15-16% of world economy. It is export oriented and only essentials have demand and functional supply chains in these lockdowns. Even with all the best case scenarios, that 3% number does not feel right
Not an economist, but I don't understand how they calculate just 3%
Further, when this is over, I think the crisis will lead into a geopolitical crisis. Also it is good to assume that multiple countries will not let China (govt) simply get away with this. There could be policies that can end up resulting into collateral damage