Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

Wait, but if you plot the total number of cases with respect to time on a log-normal scale, you're still going to get a straight line, right? So why is plotting against time a bad idea?



The plot is function against derivative of function. This is also called a phase space plot which is quite often used in the dynamic systems theory.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_space


That doesn't answer my question.


You can't easily compare countries if you plot against time. China's outbreak was in February, USA's is now. As pointed out in the video (https://invidio.us/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc), viruses don't care if it's March 29th or February 2nd. They are a "function" of the number of infected (and other parameters, but not time).


It depends on how you are modeling the data. In a logy plot, an exponential trend y=a * exp(b * x) appears linear, and is easiest to visualize/extrapolate. In a log-log plot, a power law y=a * x^b appears linear instead.


But since virus spread is exponential, why is plotting the number of cases vs time a bad idea? It would also give us a line plot.


It depends partly on your assumptions, and how you are modeling it. An exponential curve assumes that all members of a population have equal contact with all other members of the population. A power law assumes that there is some social graph that maps into N dimensions, and that infections occur along an N-1 dimensional surface in that space. Either is a valid way to model the infection, and result in different preferred ways to plot the data.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: