A useful heuristic I've formed for anomolous situations (and especially disasters /emergencies / catastrophes) is that it's where there's no signal at all, or where the signal makes. no sense, that you should be most concerened.
After major natural disasters, looking for regions in which there are _no_ reports of damage frequently repressent worst-hit areas -- all comms and monitoring are knocked out.
In the case of pandemic, it's the capacity (and often willingnes) to sense which is lacking: medical infrastructure, personnel, diagnostics, reporting standards and organisations, etc.
First signs will come a month or two in as 1,000s are dropping suddenly dead. Or before, as "patriotic" and tourist cases emerge -- nationals being diagnosed after leaving the country (this occurred in China with SARS giving rise to the sardonic term), or travellers transiting or arriving from the country testing positive, as happened with Italy and Iran recently.
A useful heuristic I've formed for anomolous situations (and especially disasters /emergencies / catastrophes) is that it's where there's no signal at all, or where the signal makes. no sense, that you should be most concerened.
After major natural disasters, looking for regions in which there are _no_ reports of damage frequently repressent worst-hit areas -- all comms and monitoring are knocked out.
In the case of pandemic, it's the capacity (and often willingnes) to sense which is lacking: medical infrastructure, personnel, diagnostics, reporting standards and organisations, etc.
First signs will come a month or two in as 1,000s are dropping suddenly dead. Or before, as "patriotic" and tourist cases emerge -- nationals being diagnosed after leaving the country (this occurred in China with SARS giving rise to the sardonic term), or travellers transiting or arriving from the country testing positive, as happened with Italy and Iran recently.