> I always doubt extrapolation, even when it's based on good statistics.
The extrapolation is based on an extremely well tested and understood theory of epidemics. It's really as simple as: the number of people infected each day is proportional to the number of people who carry the virus, so the growth in infections is exponential. That's extremely solid logic and it's been proven time and again, so complaining about extrapolation doesn't make any sense.
> I think you're inventing things for me to have said/wanted/believed because I haven't written much that you can actually argue against.
I think your motivations are obvious. You keep dismissing the science of epidemiology, saying everything is uncertain, and you keep returning to the idea that the lockdowns will destroy the economy. A lot of people are arguing like you are.
> Maybe I'm wrong this time, and I guess we'll know in a 3-8 weeks.
At which point the US will have to go into lockdown anyways, only that the epidemic will be much worse. Better to do as doubleunplussed explains, and crush the epidemic now with a relatively short lockdown, and then partially reopen and try to contain the virus at a much lower level with widespread testing and contact tracing. China did this, and South Korea, Singapore and other countries did enough testing and contact tracing early on that they haven't had to go into lockdown.
The extrapolation is based on an extremely well tested and understood theory of epidemics. It's really as simple as: the number of people infected each day is proportional to the number of people who carry the virus, so the growth in infections is exponential. That's extremely solid logic and it's been proven time and again, so complaining about extrapolation doesn't make any sense.
> I think you're inventing things for me to have said/wanted/believed because I haven't written much that you can actually argue against.
I think your motivations are obvious. You keep dismissing the science of epidemiology, saying everything is uncertain, and you keep returning to the idea that the lockdowns will destroy the economy. A lot of people are arguing like you are.
> Maybe I'm wrong this time, and I guess we'll know in a 3-8 weeks.
At which point the US will have to go into lockdown anyways, only that the epidemic will be much worse. Better to do as doubleunplussed explains, and crush the epidemic now with a relatively short lockdown, and then partially reopen and try to contain the virus at a much lower level with widespread testing and contact tracing. China did this, and South Korea, Singapore and other countries did enough testing and contact tracing early on that they haven't had to go into lockdown.