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> This is incredible. Not only do you start with an "upper bound" less than one-half the accepted value, you then toss in a "3-4 order of magnitude" reduction, which is so fantastically impossible that there has clearly been zero actual thought. Just rhetoric. Elon Musk, is that you?

3-4 orders of magnitude lower than the plague which has an upper bound fatality of 100%. That's not controversial. 3-4 order of magnitude lower than 100% is 0.01 to 0.9%, a range very much in line with your suggestion and that of health officials.




My mistake. I misinterpreted the wording as being a modifier of the range on SARS-CoV-2. The rest of my comment stands.

Though 0.5% is 2 order of magnitude less than 50%. Not to mention that the plague had a mortality rate between 1 - 15%...


Wikipedia puts bubonic plague at 30-90% if untreated and 10% with treatment [1] and septicemic plague at 100% [2] when untreated. You really don't want a Yersinia pestis infection. I think that's a fair comparison as at this point we don't have a treatment for COVID-19. It's not clear to what extent hydroxychloroquin kills SARS-COV-2 vs. modulating the immune system and preventing cytokine storm. I do understand your point, and I could have been more clear.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bubonic_plague

[2] https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/rxforsurvival/series/diseases/plagu...




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