> This is incredible. Not only do you start with an "upper bound" less than one-half the accepted value, you then toss in a "3-4 order of magnitude" reduction, which is so fantastically impossible that there has clearly been zero actual thought. Just rhetoric. Elon Musk, is that you?
3-4 orders of magnitude lower than the plague which has an upper bound fatality of 100%. That's not controversial. 3-4 order of magnitude lower than 100% is 0.01 to 0.9%, a range very much in line with your suggestion and that of health officials.
Wikipedia puts bubonic plague at 30-90% if untreated and 10% with treatment [1] and septicemic plague at 100% [2] when untreated. You really don't want a Yersinia pestis infection. I think that's a fair comparison as at this point we don't have a treatment for COVID-19. It's not clear to what extent hydroxychloroquin kills SARS-COV-2 vs. modulating the immune system and preventing cytokine storm. I do understand your point, and I could have been more clear.
3-4 orders of magnitude lower than the plague which has an upper bound fatality of 100%. That's not controversial. 3-4 order of magnitude lower than 100% is 0.01 to 0.9%, a range very much in line with your suggestion and that of health officials.