This is far worse than 2008. The market is crashing 1-2 times more rapidly (points/day) than it did during the great depression.
There have been rumors floating around that the economy was basically running on fumes. The yield curve was heavily inverted and the 7 year cyclical recession cycle was skipped.
Life is about to get really hard in the US and will likely continue to be so after the virus - and even that will probably drag on for 2-6 months. Get ready for Soviet Union style living. Bank runs are probably coming soon. This is unprecedented - both the virus and the rate at which the market is crashing.
Edit: even CNN is warning about triggering bank runs!
How do I run on a bank when the banks are closed? Why would I run on a bank when my deposit is insured by the federal government?
Even in China at the height of the crisis, the grocery stores were still stocked. Credit & ATM cards still worked. Life went on.
Is the economy fucked? Yes. Will this cause very real, crippling harm to many people? Absolutely. But there's a very real difference between a crisis and a collapse. We're not there, and we won't get there.
30% market crash in less than two weeks and an impending Nationwide shutdown with predicted 20% unemployment is probably a collapse - or at least the closest we've been to one since the great depression. Especially combined with other indicators.
The S&P lost 50% in 2008, and we survived. Mnuchin did not predict 20% unemployment.
"A Treasury official said Mnuchin was not providing a forecast but trying to illustrate the potential risks of inaction." (literally the 3rd sentence).
This just sounds like a panicked person spreading panic in turn...please give some attention to the emotional burden caused by telling people they are about to (in your opinion) get caught up in "Soviet Union" style living.
The CNN article is an opinion piece which is effectively advising caution and even sources reliable information that FDIC protection is still in place. The tone is completely different...please be more responsible.
No. If you're on TD Ameritrade, for example, you're insured up to $152 million through the FDIC, SIPC, and private insurers. Other companies are required to carry similar insurance.
How will you access your money if the internet goes down? How will you buy food if your credit card isn't accepted, either because their connection or power is out or worse?
A society built on top of perpetual growth is about to grind to a halt for 2-6 months, after already showing signs of poor economic health. This doesn't even get into the potential political mess that awaits us.
> A society built on top of perpetual growth is about to grind to a halt for 2-6 months
Grinding to a halt may be an exaggeration;
There's little reason for
- food production to grind to a halt (California, Midwest, Florida) as these are not high density jobs with a high risk of contagion.
- Technology oriented jobs; These have been increasingly work remote or from small offices; In many ways technology production should be stimulated in solving many problems presented by our now quarantined economies.
- Existing Construction jobs; Maybe they're slowed down to decrease worker density. these have a potential for low density, especially Crane operators, concrete trucks, etc. If you touch your face or take off your helmet you're going to have a bad time in these roles already.
- Power Company. Whether it's hydroelectric, coal, or nuclear; few of these use worker density to run or be maintained. Major projects will likely be stalled for those 6 months. These are also places where touching your face is already avoided.
Your thinking is myopic. The virus is a geopolitical trigger. Among the fallout is the US economy.
The world is rapidly changing. It will not return to normal once the virus is eliminated. The signs are everywhere. Governments in flux.
We just had two $1.5T federal stimuli effectively fall on their faces. Treasury Secretary is predicting 20% unemployment. That's great depression level and I suspect they were being conservative to avoid even worse panic. This is going to continue for many months if not years after the virus troubles are over.
That still doesn't mean the power is going out or the water is going to stop running. Another depression is in no way a good thing, but it's not the apocalypse. Zombies are not going to take over the water treatment plants. No one is going to nuke the power stations.
Yes, life will get hard. Yes, this really sucks if you were planning on retiring soon. But life will go on. Calm the fuck down.
There have been rumors floating around that the economy was basically running on fumes. The yield curve was heavily inverted and the 7 year cyclical recession cycle was skipped.
Life is about to get really hard in the US and will likely continue to be so after the virus - and even that will probably drag on for 2-6 months. Get ready for Soviet Union style living. Bank runs are probably coming soon. This is unprecedented - both the virus and the rate at which the market is crashing.
Edit: even CNN is warning about triggering bank runs!
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/economy/banks-cash-coronaviru...