Now its probably in control of machines. And they don't know if its corona (which might pass as it did in china), they are probably thinking something like 2008 has happened.
The virus did not "pass" in China. China managed to get the spread to slow down to a crawl, by implementing a severe total shutdown of everything and keeping that up for some weeks. They are still in the process of removing those brakes again, and as far as I know, they are still at a pretty early point in that process, meaning lots of brake power is still applied.
There is absolutely nothing preventing the virus from resuming to spread as soon as economic and social activity continues to return towards normal level. In fact, most experts expect exactly that to happen, albeit maybe at a bit of a slower speed than before (due to some people being immune and people generally being a bit more cautious in their daily lives now).
Oh, and due to the incubation time, you'll not see any negative effect in testing results from removing the brakes for about 10-12 days. It's the same thing as when they were applied. So what's described above will happen, even though for 10 days you might wonder "What's the deal? The infection numbers still look good!".
This is far from over, in China and anywhere else.
Chinas new cases per day rate is effectively zero at this point. They beat it, plain and simple. And only 3,000 people died from coronavirus. Compared with literally any other cause of death, it's a tiny blip, even negligible. Around 11 million people died in china last year.
How does such a contagious virus simply stop spreading? after infecting a just tiny percentage of the population. Their economy is coming back up and life is pretty much back to normal over there, while the rest of the world is just headed into it.
If we weren't talking about the kind of authoritarian government that probably would have been able to stop this outbreak in it's infancy if it didn't have local officials prioritizing suppress news about it reaching higher levels of government... maybe I'd be more charitable to these claims.
I can tell you personally, factories I was in contact with about totally non-pandemic related industries, with capacity that I highly doubt can be repurposed for supplies, are still talking about extensive delays for any sort of order.
> How does such a contagious virus simply stop spreading?
It's quite simple: noone is permitted to go outside without a mask, and they ramped up testing and manufacturing masks, like any reasonable country would.
Meanwhile in the west ,,masks are not important for people, just for doctors''.
I'm still looking for a rational explanation in your comment why the virus should just have "vanished" in China and NOT resume spreading when life gets back to normal.
Local clusters can be suppressed when your testing and contact tracing capacity greatly exceeds the number of new cases. China's new domestic cases are in the single digits now. Even unsupressed, it will take weeks for the disease to become out of control again.
These so called "experts", particularly those in positions of power in the UK will cause untold damage if they rely on their assumption of this phantom second outbreak.
Sorry, but there's no government on earth, including China's, that's able to do reliable contact tracing of people potentially going to massive gatherings. Heck, they don't even need to do that - have you ever been in the Shanghai Metro? You'll have "contact" with thousands of anonymous people if you just commute to work and back again. Trace that!
The only thing I agree to is "it will take weeks for the disease to become out of control again". Yes, it will, and that is part of the problem - it'll be at least half a month until it's even possible for you to notice that you're getting the same problem all over again.
It didn't "pass" in China or Korea (FWIW: the Korean numbers seem much better attested -- lots of smart people continue to worry that China has been censoring news of further outbreaks). It's just controlled.
The quarantine measures required to control it continue to be required to control it. So while the virus itself might not be spreading, its economic effects persist until we reach herd immunity or distribute a vaccine. Both are year+ long time scales.
The market is, frankly, being much more rational than people expect. This isn't going to get better soon.
If they're censoring it, they're censoring it from their own people as well. My childhood best friend lives in Shanghai and is reporting that things are pretty much back to normal there. Businesses are open again, people are in the streets like normal, etc. This was his report from this morning after we inquired for more information last night.
He says they are not completely relaxed in public, but getting there. They still observe social distancing. But from his understanding, infection rates are way down all around China.
These are the kinds of reports we need to hear about, not the "some of the (almost always unnamed) experts say that <insert baseless alarmist prediction>" type.
So yeah we need reports from the ground, if anybody reading this is in China please chime in and give us a quick rundown of the situation over there. Thanks
>>People back home have asked me for updates from 'ahead of the curve' in China so here is today's: China has added USA to the list of mandatory quarantines. My friend just arrived yesterday to Shanghai from the Bay Area and was taken from the airport to a testing facility and was then put under a 14-day quarantine at his apartment in Shanghai (even though he tested negative). Meanwhile, those of us out of quarantine are free to move around the city with our green cards. And many are indeed choosing to do so while still observing social distancing. Infection rates are way down all across China.
He goes on to say the following in two of his responses below...
In regards to how long
>>China was worst around early February. So I'd guess at least a month to get over the hump.
In regards to a 2nd outbreak coming
>>Have not heard that at all. I wouldn't say it's 'relaxed' more like 'beginning to relax a bit'
My parents are in China (Shandong province) and they are free to travel across cities. Restrictions (aka lockdowns) are lifted and cities are getting busy again. Generally, back to normal, aside from school closures.
Most recent news from this morning: Schools are opening across the country in stages from April. This is strong signal. I don't think "coverup" and "school opening" can do together because viruses won't listen to either CCP or Trump.
As a Chinese with so many friends in China, I would say that articles from WSJ/NYT about China may not reflect the reality. They are telling the truth, but there are many truths and reporters just want to pick whatever they want. E.g., there are sad stories for sure, but there are also plenty of moving good stories. In this mixed-up world I found it very difficult to find real "objective" reports, aside from your own eyes...
Yes absolutely this the reason why I refrain from basing my opinions solely on the reports coming from western outlets, they've been notoriously known for practicing "lying by omission" essentially stating true facts while completely disregarding other important factors and details that would otherwise go against whatever narrative they are trying to push on their readership.
Thanks for the uplifting report and take care out there mate.
? The circuit breaker are tripped at 7%, 13%, and 20%, it's not a computer randomly deciding to trip them
Everyone knew the last few circuit breakers were going to be hit in the morning because of futures
This morning it was actually surprising that we didn't hit the circuit breaker at open
We actually might have gone the whole day without hitting them too... it went off during Trump's conference when he seemed to go completely off the rails.
A lot of people will recoil to that statement saying it's an oversimplification or attempt to unnecessarily politicize this, but Trump's conferences in the last few weeks have had IMMEDIATE effects on the stock market.
Automated trading can cause one-time events or exacerbate a problem, but the larger market is driven by trader sentiment, and that is overwhelming negative right now.
The algorithm aren’t the reason Trump bumbling an interview shocked trader confidence.
