Personally, I think this is incredibly irresponsible. Elon told his workers to stay home even if they feel "slightest bit ill or even uncomfortable" [0]. Yet, according to the CDC, symptoms may not appear until 2-14 days after exposure [1]. So Tesla employees may be spreading the virus to each other, and the rest of the world, without knowing it.
In the Alameda order which describes what "essential businesses" may remain open, the closest loophole I can see that might allow the Tesla factory to stay open is for "Airlines, taxis, and other private transportation providers providing transportation services necessary for Essential Activities and other purposes expressly authorized in this Order" [2]. I think it's more than a stretch to say that building new cars counts as transportation services. Repairing existing Teslas, sure. But I don't think Tesla should be allowed to keep building new cars. And I think if Elon cares about his workers' safety, and the safety of the world, he would ask his employees who are building new cars to stay home.
Judging from the full body of his email (which I'm guessing plenty of people read before it even reached the news judging from how many of my friends sent it to me), it seems like he really doesn't care about his staff.
Choice quote:
> I will personally be at work, but that's just me. Totally okay if you want to stay at home for any reason.
If this isn't the most peer-pressure-y way to tell people to show up, I don't know what is. The head of the company choosing to keep showing up to the office in the middle of an outbreak is the exact opposite of the precedent he should be setting right now.
Shoot, he can even tell people he's going to work from home and still secretly come to the office; people would understand. It's his company. Or he could've just not mentioned his plans at all. But by mentioning his plans, his direct reports will still show up, their direct reports will largely still show up, and anyone who doesn't want demerits on their performance reviews will all still show up. No different from an unlimited leave policy where people take no leave.
This is absolutely wrong. And hopefully illegal. And I definitely did cancel my Tesla order (RN112815329) because of it.
Even when all his employees get sick the chance someone dies is extremely low. So Elon is entitled to have the opinion that this Wuhan fever is more in our head than actually taking lives at scale. And from that point of view priority number one for him is still progressing humanity further.
To be fair, other bosses in other places went through that stage and a day or two later decided to tell people to stay home.
I wouldn't have a problem being chosen to be one of the "skeleton crew". But I'd have a huge problem with the leader not doing the right thing for the group, namely having most people not come in.
The issue isn't just peer pressure, it's giving people the choice at all, pushing them into a conflict of interest. Telling them to do what makes them feels best seems reflexively correct to many people not just Musk, but it's not.
As far as new cars, there were no new cars for civilians during WWII, right?
Super Bowl on Feb 2, was irresponsible. 17k confirmed cases in China at the time, 10x of that unconfirmed.
Tesla factory. One has to balance the economic damage and public health risk. And take into consideration that there is a public health risk from economic damage.
The thing started in China in December, maybe earlier. US population that travels to China tends to be young, active, connected in business circles. Brushes the thing off like a minor cold, without skipping a beat. So community transmission in the US could have been going as early as December, just not in the circles that are particularly affected by that virus.
Irresponsible? From a company that sticks glorified lane assist and touts it as full autonomous driving (“pending regulatory approval” lol)? Shocked pikachu face
There’s plenty of reason to criticise Tesla without relying on false narratives. With a couple of rare historical exceptions Tesla do reliably distinguish AP and FSD.
(Also, the generic term for what AP does is lane centering, not lane assist.)
AP and FSD are both arguably referable to as “glorified lane assist” considering how well they work. Both are incredibly misleading names at the very least, which speaks to the “irresponsible” thesis.
I'd like to see the police in San Mateo and Alameda prohibit people from entering the building unless their roles fit said needs. It'd be a good demonstration against reckless management.
The definition of “essential business” is extremely broad. It even includes cannabis stores. Tesla is a whole lot more important to our country and our economy than keeping the cannabis stores open.
It does now. There was some back and forth for a day or so and dispensaries I work with got some emails to the contrary before the official announcement.
At this point all legal states deem it essential and most are legalizing delivery too.
Without commenting on whether it is sound, the logic seems to be that transportation (particularly private transportation) is essential. Thus, auto repair and supply businesses have been exempted as "essential businesses" (they are specifically called out in all 6 Bay Area county orders).
Taking this one step further, auto repair businesses can't very well repair cars if there are no parts available, and those parts come from Fremont. Therefore, the Tesla factory would (at least in part) theoretically already qualify for an exemption under the existing order.
One could also make the argument that (given that private transportation has been deemed an "essential" service) replacing worn out or destroyed cars is essential, and thus manufacturing finished cars qualifies for an exemption.
Your argument can be extended infinitely. It's pretty easy to understand that Tesla (and any other assembly plants that fit in this window) is simply getting special treatment here.
The factory that makes hydraulic fluid for Tesla's presses that stamp out car parts is also part of the transportation supply chain, As is the oil refinery that supplies feedstock to the hydraulic oil vendor.
Honestly, your point is valid except for the part about special treatment. From what I've heard, window tint shops are staying open too based upon the same exemption. Its a confusing time and the regulators haven't fully thought this exemption through.
(Just to be clear, I'm not defending Tesla here. They have the choice to shutdown regardless of government order or exemptions)
If a business owner wants to skirt the regulations by following the letter of the law instead of the spirit of it, that's fine and we can consider them all assholes. The rules are to keep people from getting sick. I hope all of his employees go on strike like the Mercedes and VW ones.
If the largest business in the area was producing nail varnish, you might find that "beauticians are staying open too based upon the same exemption" - it would still be special treament because neither of them should be open.
You're absolutely right; our economy is far too interconnected to isolate specific industries. Right now it's a bit of a "tragedy of the commons" situation where the companies that are able to sustain operations (legally or illegally) will reap huge rewards when everything starts to go back to some version of normal.
I honestly think the thing we will learn from this pandemic is that we can't stop a modern economy like this for a couple months without also incurring significant loss of life. If this shutdown extends more than a month we're going to see supplies start to run low and people will panic. Grocery stores around me (large northeastern city) are already having trouble restocking.
Careful, things may not go back to normal and we may have a lasting recession. This is especially so if we don't do things to help the rest of the economic ecosystem alive during this period of little to no commerce in some sectors.
At the same time, I hope Tesla is going as far as they can to protect their workers... and that will probably be the real story at the end of all of this, "What companies did to protect their workers and the economy around them."
I think it's already too late; we've ground the nation to a halt and it will take a while to restart. I work for a company that is often cited for knowing these kinds of things, and we were told today to operate under the assumption that the economy will be more or less shut down until May/June, with normal economic activity not resuming until the end of Q3. All that said, the companies that can keep as much of their operations going until then will be in a much better position to come out of this intact.
We're heading into the next great depression, and it's going to take a New Deal type of effort to recover. Trump is actually in a remarkably similar position to Hoover in all this too; so it's not unprecedented to be headed into something like this with a nincompoop at the helm.
A severe and sustained global economic depression could kill significantly more people than CV19, mostly in Africa and other poor regions. It could also trigger a half-million first-time homeless in the US.
We need to "Flatten the curve" enough to spread out critical care capacity surges without over-achieving to the extent we cause even more harm long-term to the world's poorest populations. We need a constant gradual rate of CV19 spread. If we "full stop" CV19's spread now, when social distancing and lockdowns lift, we'll be facing Wuhan/Italy surges again.
This is the time I really miss having adults running the federal government. Individual states are flying blind while everyone at the federal level is too worried about how the boss will take it to effectively coordinate.
> The factory that makes hydraulic fluid for Tesla's presses that stamp out car parts is also part of the transportation supply chain, As is the oil refinery that supplies feedstock to the hydraulic oil vendor.
Yes, I believe that is rather the point of the exemptions laid out in the order. The health commissioner is trying to prevent infections of Covid-19, not destroy the economy.
Tell me how you feel about drycleaners. They are also explicitly exempted as businesses providing essential services.
Actually, now that I think about it, you're right: It is more important to have a crisply-pressed suit than transportation to the grocery store for food. Grab the pitchforks, let's get Elon!
Dry cleaners are essential services because they are necessary for sanitation. They may not be for you, but for example my pillow is dry clean only and it would be a problem if I spilled my morning tea on it and then ants showed up because I couldn't have it cleaned because someone thought I could live with limp creases.
I’m going to ignore the thinly veiled personal insult and focus on why I wrote the above comment: I find it irritating when people assume that if they can’t see an obvious reason for something then there must not be any reason at all, and doubly so when they assume an air of superiority about it. In hindsight, it was a bit off-topic for this thread and maybe I should have held my tongue.
However, I’d like to point out that you’ve done the same thing again: while I do not personally have a maid, I might have been disabled and require a housekeeper to do some cleaning that I was incapable of. Fortunately, unlike you, the public health department has also thought of that scenario and covered it in their order as well.
Oh yeah any interruption in Tesla's notoriously smooth repair process would totally cripple the state for sure. What with all the critical services reliant on ... checks notes ... luxury electric sports cars.
Yeah, I've had this discussion before. I'm not convinced that its any worse than a base 3 series, but I'm also not convinced that a base 3 series is a luxury car.
Sure, its a premium with premium perforance, but its not "luxurious". Conversely, you can get more "luxurious" cars with worse performance for about the same money.
Want luxury and premium performance? That's another 10k (at least) with most brands and Tesla doesn't really offer a car with both at all, IMO.
Outside of performance, what features does my Model 3 have that my Subaru BRZ didn't?
Heated seats are pretty standard these days. My TM3 has heated seats in the rear. The TM3 has a better entertainment unit for sure, but I could have certainly replaced the head unit in my BRZ if I wanted navigation and Spotify integration. There's self-driving features, but all Subaru's these days except the BRZ have lane-keeping and TACC, which makes it on par with the AP I have, since I didn't pay for FSD. My BRZ even had dual-zone automatic climate controls!
The only things I can think of that my Model 3 has that my BRZ didn't are the automatic wipers, the a power passenger seat, and profiles for the power driver seat.
What features would the TM3 need to be considered a luxury vehicle? I can think of a few things it doesn't have.
- Heated steering wheel
- Entertainment screens built into the back of the front seats
A Civic starts at under $21k per https://automobiles.honda.com/civic-sedan. It's Motor Trend's fault, not yours, but that must be the most decked out Civic possible at that price point. I actually went through the "Build" option for the 2020 Civic Sedan Touring CVT and could not get it above $32k, so I can't explain the $36k figure.
Parts, yes. New cars, no. In the short term regarding replacement cars, I'm certain there's enough inventory. The optics of what is still considered a luxury brand continuing the production lines isn't great (but is consistent with the messaging Musk has released during this crisis)
>How is an electric car factory an essential business?
Because it's not like a restaurant that you can close and then open a month later with little consequence to the public. If you stop production of components or cars, you will not have them later on to restart the economy.
Most of the world uses lean manufacturing. Closing down some factories will mean that entire production chains will shut down. All the companies that service those chains will shut down. And when the virus passes, you will have no cars, no components for cars, and no easy way to restart manufacturing.
Even without shutdowns the entire system will take a huge hit dues to changes in demand. (Which will drop to nothing for some thing and skyrocket for others.)
Yeah, the idea that all of these businesses shutting down has little consequence to the public (regardless of whether they open again) is incredibly tone deaf, with somewhere around 15% of the US population impacted by these closures. Worse, this population likely overlaps with the most at-risk when it comes to both health and financial standing.
It sounds cold but the reality is that other restaurants will open to replace the ones that never reopen because a demand for them will exist thanks to places like Tesla staying open and pumping revenue into the local economy.
So we can lose Tesla and be fine with remaining electric car manufacturers or new ones. In contrast, losing a long-term social hub is a lasting negative impact.
So you think it's OK for a business to knowingly take actions that are likely to kill people, as long as they really need the money? Thank God most of modern society disagrees with you.
I have bad news for you: Modern society not only allows business and individuals to take actions that will kill people, but it quantifies to what extent in dollar terms:
I'm not sure of your point here? Presumably Tesla's capital position is still significantly smaller than VW? I do not know this, though, as I am not as familiar with VW's capital structure.
TBH, I'm more worried about what will happen with Ford or GM if they have even a short outage. GM has massive ongoing obligations and a relatively weak balance sheet, afaik.
Strictly in terms of market cap (not the best metric, admittedly) Tesla is larger than VW. (both company's stocks have been devastated recently though)
Market cap is a psychological construct. It will not help you when you're already bleeding cash and your cash flow suddenly goes sharply negative. It's entirely possible that this calamity will kill off some very large companies (by any metric) that have been operating in the margin.
This applies just as much to anything food-related (grocery or restaurant); maybe moreso because most of what a restaurant needs (or farm/ranch/fishery could produce) is not as shelf-stable as most car parts.
Still, restaurants are commodities. Even in normal market conditions, there's plenty of churn in gastronomy. It's harder to restart a factory, and consequences on the supply chain might be more profound.
> Because it's not like a restaurant that you can close and then open a month later with little consequence to the public. If you stop production of components or cars, you will not have them later on to restart the economy.
Interesting. VW, Daimler, Lamborghini, Ferrari, FCA, PSA all are stopping production.
The short version is: it’s not an inessential business and it poses little risk. So balancing the economic impact of shutting it down versus the economic impact of workers on social isolation orders possibly getting sick, the better option for everyone is to keep as close to BAU as possible.
Shutting cities down is not going to make coronavirus go away — it is a last ditch effort of a failed nation that let its health infrastructure rot.
Everywhere else we are taking sensible personal precautions, and retraining people for the six month fight ahead: social distancing, self-isolation, far more attention to hygiene. We can do that because our health care systems and pandemic response capabilities weren’t vandalised by vested interests.
Yuck, leadership at its worst. It's tough to shut down factories - restarts are sensitive - so it makes sense to allow a skeleton crew. That's not what's happening. This looks like obvious local corruption in the face of a public health crisis. Not thrilled to be "shelter at home-d" next to these pricks with a wife who works at an area hospital and someone elderly at home: this is quite the FU to the community that keeps bailing this government-funded company out.
I've been keeping a tally of companies and leaders who force people to come to the office or use this as a marketing opportunity (vs data4good), and Tesla is now on the shortlist for evil.
That's a myopic view of the largely tax-payer enabled Tesla/SpaceX/SolarCity conglomorate. I don't expect a company largely bootstrapped by massive US gov program awards & free passes+subsidies to give equity to the gov despite the massive capital investment, but backroom calls to circumvent public health policy is somewhere between "far below baseline expectations" and "evil".
I'm happy we have real civic-level project funding for people who get results, and private citizens reaping massive profits from them. In fact, I think the real genius of Musk & Thiel is to be self-enriching versions of FDR, and the DC prime etc. mess has forced their need. But that doesn't excuse evil - there are real lives involved,.
I -- and governments -- are for skeleton crews keeping most factories open to avoid machine breakdown, and essential businesses at whatever they can do safely.
Consumer car companies, casinos, and other special interests don't make sense to me beyond the obvious answer of "knowing corruption" and "institutionalized malignant ignorance."
The Alameda county order only allows for construction of replacement parts, which can be obviously argued is necessary. People need cars to get to work; people like doctors and nurses and grocery store clerks on the front lines of this pandemic. A shortage of replacement parts for their cars would only make it harder for them to fight this.
> Ford likes to say it “didn’t take the money” because unlike General Motors and Chrysler, it didn’t require a taxpayer bailout to survive the 2008-2009 credit crisis. But don’t forget: Ford tapped into a different pool of government money set aside for the auto industry during those desperate times. (And those low-cost funds were critical to Ford’s survival because no other funding sources were available.)
> Hoping to create “thousands of green jobs” in the U.S. and reduce the nation’s dependence on foreign oil, the DOE under the Bush Administration established the $25 billion loan program in 2007 to encourage development of advanced technology vehicles that would burn less fuel and, importantly, be manufactured in the U.S. Congress funded the program in 2009, after President Obama took office.
> Ford applied for and received $5.9 billion in June 2009 (the same month GM filed for bankruptcy) to help pay for investments in more fuel-efficient engines, hybrids and electric cars and also to convert two truck plants to production of cars.
Ford is cancelling all their cars except trucks and the Mustang. They took a bailout that wasn’t a bailout in name only.
Those are different mechanisms with different purposes. If that’s the bar to be considered a bailout, Tesla was bailed out as well.
Whether or not they met the conditions of the loan is a different story.
And while technically true that the mustang is the remaining US car, it obfuscates the fact that the name is being more of a brand moniker than a model, and will include plans for an electric version of the “mustang”
It’s disingenuous for you to argue it was a bailout for Tesla when they have something to show for it (over a million EVs sold, 400k/year of manufacturing capacity, a Supercharger network) and Ford has zero, and Tesla paid their loan back while Ford did not.
You missed the point. I don’t consider either a bailout. They were investments to spur a particular industrial goal. If Ford doesn’t meet the intent, I just hope the government was smart enough in the way they formed the contract
If you consider them both the same kind of "investments" I propose you invest in me in the same way the government did with Ford. i.e. give me money, and I won't ever give it back.
At the same you I'll invest in you in the same way the government did with Tesla. i.e I give you money, and you pay it back 10 years early with interest.
I wholeheartedly accept this deal. Do you? Why not?
I didn’t say it was a good deal. Unfortunately, the government gets hosed all they time by poorly formed contracts. The government also plans on a certain percentage of these investments not to work out. I’m no more happy about it than you, but the original comment was merely a correction that Ford was not part of the TARP bailout.
With that being said, the link by the other poster says Ford will repay by 2022
This is consistent with Tesla's safety record both for its own employees [0] and for its customers [1]. Government is all too happy to allow Elon to keep testing the boundaries.
If things work out for Tesla and they don't have a Covid-19 outbreak among their employees, a small number of people stand to benefit greatly (Elon Musk especially).
If things go south for Tesla, not only do Tesla employees have to deal with the fallout, but also their families and their communities.
Marin county resident here. The details of the lockdown permit essential businesses and services. Automobile repair, parts, and services fall under that category.
And that's all the motivation you need. I wish everyone would follow their lead and the defy the quarantine theater - yes, I know the virus is terrible, but we haven't even quite started with the cure and it already looks like it's worse.
Things will not be normal for a long time. This is going to be a severe global recession and thats going to depress auto sales a lot. Also, oil is $24 a barrel, which makes electric cars at even more a disadvantage.
So much of what he does can be seen as driven by pure self interest despite his altruistic, saver of humanity persona.
He is personally set to receive tens of billions in compensation if Tesla hits its targets. Which no matter who the person is has a significant influencing effect.
This. I used to be a big fan, but this fact has become transparently obvious in the past few years and makes it really hard to like the guy.
Now I'm just waiting for his big announcement that he's putting together a crack team to develop a COVID-19 cure/vaccine, at which he'll throw a few million dollars and achieve nothing other than to stoke his ego and reputation. I hope I'm wrong.
If I'm playing chess with a guy who is known for making good decisions in (i.e. winning) many chess games, and he makes a move that looks dumb, the prudent conclusion is not that the move is dumb, is that I'm dumb and I need to figure out what the motivation was.
This is way more nuanced than chess though. You can be smart for shareholders and still be dumb. The further he goes into the robotic visionary the more unlikable he, and Tesla, becomes. That can wreck a company that is so reliant upon a loyal following that bought the cool factor and brand. It can easily vaporize. And we have a major event that is not good for Tesla's demographics. A lot of people had no business buying Tesla's during more confident times. Competition has increased. Cool factor dwindling with so many on the road. These pressures will test them without the right leadership.
Very flawed analogy. You're talking about qualitatively-different decisions in the same "game". I wasn't, since I was critizising him based on his decisions regarding public health (handling covid-19, to be precise); I explicitly acknowledged his seemingly outstanding competence with regards to other matters (what you would refer to as "chess" in your analogy).
If he made a decision that appears to be wrong or stupid regarding Tesla cars or SpaceX, I'd be more cautious to call him out. But my comment wasn't even close to be about that. I hope you can understand what I'm saying here.
I don't think it is, though. You can subdivide life infinitely and claim different domains and how one can be smart in soda business but dumb in candy business, but I don't think that's justified.
He made a decision about how a factory should operate given the environment; I think, as his many other decisions about business before, this one is solid.
I'm not excusing Musk's decsion, but I will say that lots of places are ignoring the shelter in place request. Residential construction workers are still putting up drywall, laying tiles, etc. Parts of the city have the usual number of people on the street you'd expect on a weekday. Tourists are walking around. High end coffee shops are still selling $6 lattes.
I went to the doctor and the pharmacist and was surprised at the amount of people milling about. Definitely no 6 feet of social distancing either.
While the public works construction crews are exempt from this, maybe they can fix Van Ness while everyone's cooped up?
I believe halfway-built residential construction, when left for a long period of time, not only becomes a total loss due to exposure to the elements, but also structurally unstable and a danger to life and limb in surroundings areas. I remember a few years back North Carolina had a windstorm and it knocked down a partially built apartment complex, because the roof beams weren't installed and it was just a bunch of trusses.
I thought dogpatch had some buildings go up, seemed new-ish when I went there. Might all topple into the bay when The Big One hits because it's built on a trash heap, but construction is construction ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
> coffee shops are exempted for take-out and delivery.
> Residential construction is exempted.
That's some very essential services there. My point is that the number of exclusions make this policy a joke. It's not a serious effort. It's half-arsed at best. It's not going to work.
> My point is that the number of exclusions make this policy a joke
Bullshit. You are changing your stance once it was called out as wrong.
These were your examples for "I will say that lots of places are ignoring the shelter in place request". Doing things that are exempted from the request isn't ignoring it.
The new apartment complex near the (old) Fremont BART station still had people actively working at it this morning. It doesn't seem to be on the essential list from what I saw from the official Alameda County order.
That sounds like it would be covered under item 10d:
> For purposes of this Order, individuals may leave their residence to provide any services or perform any work necessary to the operations and maintenance of “Essential Infrastructure,” including,but not limited to, public works construction, construction of housing (in particular affordable housing or housing for individuals experiencing homelessness), airport operations, water, sewer, gas, electrical, oil refining, roads and highways, public transportation, solid waste collection and removal, internet, and telecommunications systems(including the provision of essential global, national, and local infrastructure for computing services, business infrastructure, communications, and web-based services), provided that they carry out those services or that work in compliance with Social Distancing Requirements as defined this Section, to the extent possible.
Unless Fremont factory is 100% automated with robots, this sounds reckless. However, the Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai has been reopened and working in full speed (except when it's bottlenecked by upstream suppliers)
I used to support Tesla but can’t help but think recent successes (including the astronomical rise in stock price) got to Elon Musk. I hate to say it but they’re 2-3 quarters away from possibly filing if the virus continues at current pace in US and EU.
Send home all the elderly people and anyone with a preexisting condition. Most people will get sick anyone. Vaccines take a least a year to make. Elon is openly saying people are overreacting
The models say this would still overwhelm the healthcare system. Population wide quarantine is the only way to keep this thing inside ICU capacity limits. That's why we're doing it.
Stage 1. That's the easiest stage to get approval for, and many of these trials might not go into Stage 2 or Stage 3. Drug trials take a long time to figure out all of the possible side effects.
Part of me wants to say, "oh we've overreacted a bit, we should keep working while observing safety precautions like distancing and hygiene." The other part of me is doomsayer permabear saying that even giving humans the chance to mess something up will result in catastrophic failure. At the end of the day, I certainly wouldn't want to be the one responsible for killing someone's mother or father.
And what exactly the problem with that?
We have a biggest hysteria of the latest 10 years.
Thanks for the social media and news.
And now our economy is basically on free fall, thanks for that.
I would like at the end of hysteria to make some analysis: How many millions of dollars we just spend on each death case.
In the Alameda order which describes what "essential businesses" may remain open, the closest loophole I can see that might allow the Tesla factory to stay open is for "Airlines, taxis, and other private transportation providers providing transportation services necessary for Essential Activities and other purposes expressly authorized in this Order" [2]. I think it's more than a stretch to say that building new cars counts as transportation services. Repairing existing Teslas, sure. But I don't think Tesla should be allowed to keep building new cars. And I think if Elon cares about his workers' safety, and the safety of the world, he would ask his employees who are building new cars to stay home.
[0] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-tesla-... [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/s... [2] http://acphd.org/media/559658/health-officer-order-shelter-i...