At least the airlines will get another bailout, after selfishly spending billions on stock buybacks while shrinking seats and hiking fees.
Meanwhile, Joe Average, who ended up running a food truck when Wells Fargo "right sized" him during the last recession, will find a comfortable slab of concrete upon which to rest his head, under the viaduct.
Look, I complain about wealth inequality more than anyone I know.
Stock buybacks had A LOT of problems people don't discuss.
But this isn't really what ruined the airlines.
UAL -- the hardest hit and worst buyback offender -- bought back $1.2Bn in 2015, $2Bn in 2016, $3Bn in 2017, $1.2Bn in 2018, and $3Bn in 2019.
That's a total of $10.4Bn. To my knowledge, less than 4% of that was on borrowed money.
They returned roughly ~95% of free cashflow to investors mostly through buybacks instead of dividends.
UAL's Cash on Hand increased 25% in 2019 to $4.9Bn.
Even if they had that $10.4Bn, they could not get through Coronavirus. Airlines have HIGHLY volatile margins on INSANE amounts of revenue. None of them could withstand a 70% decrease in air traffic for a year.
Maybe they're all terribly run. I dunno. They were pretty bad buyback offenders, but far from the worst. And buybacks are not what ruined them.
Most companies keep less than 10% of Op Ex in cash on hand. UAL's Op Ex is about $38Bn/year. A lot of people think it's healthy for a business to have 25-50% of Op Ex in cash. For UAL, that would've been $9.5-$19Bn.
They could've been in that range if they didn't issue any dividends or buybacks since 2014. But they still wouldn't be able to make it through this.
And, no, I'm not saying that they should've done buybacks at the rate they did (or at all). I'm just saying this isn't what ruined them, and they are far from the worst offenders here. They're just the hardest hit.
Edit:
Curious if anyone familiar with the industry can comment:
How much of Airlines' Op Ex is fixed? How much can they realistically cut? I don't know enough about how this "mandatory" flight schedule works. How many flights do they need to keep flying to keep their gates?
>Even if they had that $10.4Bn, they could not get through Coronavirus. Airlines have HIGHLY volatile margins on INSANE amounts of revenue. None of them could withstand a 70% decrease in air traffic for a year.
Ignoring Tech industry, most companies on earth could not withstand a 70% drop in revenue. The world we are in today is that everyone is trying to go for Big Revenue and Slim Profit Margin. A side effect from QE or worsen by it.
30% over 4 years from their peak. Still a pretty big drop. (RIM/BlackBerry has been a 95% drop over 9 years, and hasn't stopped yet, but looks to be levelling off.)
Anything where there isn't something else limiting supply (prestige, luxury, brand, IP rights, network effects, zoning) is going to have slim profit margins. That includes most goods and commodities. That means that "Big Revenue and Slim Profit Margin" are going to be the companies providing commodity services to most people. If you want small revenue large profit margin air travel, you're looking at charter and luxury, for instance.
It's not the that ruined them, but we see another classic transfer from the state (=people) to the wealthy.
The correct thing would be to nationalise them if they go bankrupt, not to bail out the investors that earned money with the explicit expectation of risk.
And I say that having lost 10k in stock value in the past month. Still my fault and my risk and I don't deserve to be bailed out for it.
I also think it’s ridiculous for people to want these companies to store up money for a rainy day, while at the same time keeping interest rates incredibly low.
> after selfishly spending billions on stock buybacks
I've been seeing this on twitter a lot. Is there some context you can provide for why these particular repurchases were in bad taste, given no awareness of the upcoming pandemic. I am assuming you don't view repurchases as 'selfish' generally.
A buyback is a form of capital return to shareholders.
Improvements in leg room, amenities, services, infrastructure, etc, are a form of capital return to customers.
When executive compensation is tied to operating profit or market capitalization, there is an incentive to reduce the product quality (the air traveler experience, in this case) to the minimum competitive level and boost the share price. A buyback boosts the share price in two inter-related ways. First, it reduces the amount of shares available in the secondary market (the "float"), which distributes the market cap across a smaller number of shares. Second, it provides artificial demand for the stock, impacting the price upward by buying shares.
Warren Buffett has stated that he likes investing in equities in part because companies reinvest their profits in their business. A buyback doesn't do that because when you spend $5B on your own stock, you're not spending it on providing a better experience to your customers, and you're not spending it on R&D. You're just spending it on concentrating shareholder ownership and driving up the stock price.
Guess who often gets paid in shares? Executives. It's common for a CEO to get a small portion of his compensation as salary and a large portion as shares and options.
The point is that these companies could have reinvested that money in their business, but instead they aimed to boost share price and financial optics.
That's not to say the airlines don't care about the little guy. Some shareholders are regular folks. Plus, at least Delta paid out a bonus to employees a few months ago. But there is indeed a reason to dislike large buybacks.
> A buyback is a form of capital return to shareholders.
> Improvements in leg room, amenities, services, infrastructure, etc, are a form of capital return to customers.
And bailouts are a form of wealth redistribution from people of modest means to wealthy executives and investors who, it turns out, are actually not willing to shoulder the risk associated with passive profits.
> That's not to say the airlines don't care about the little guy.
They actually like the little guy, you can fit more of them on a plane.
Why is a buyback worse than a dividend? Both are a form of delivering ROI, it just happens that one is better for shareholders due to the tax system.
In fact if airlines had actually reinvested that money, they would be even more fucked up than they are now. At least now they have free cash flow to make a temporary drop in revenue hurt less. Reinvesting money in the corporate world often involves converting cash flow into debt, which they’re probably going to have to do now to meet their existing financial obligations. Much better than if they were midway through financing some large fleet expansion and had less FCF on hand to weather the travel slowdown
I don't understand who buybacks are better for. A dividend would've returned money to all the people who held onto shares and wasn't paying attention to how much they should be selling off to capture the buyback and just had all the gains wiped out...
Absent a market selloff, they're better for shareholders for two reasons: one, it manifests earnings as capital gains/stock appreciation rather than dividends, and two, it has positive future ROI.
Point 1 is not super important because of the existence of qualified dividends.
Point 2 is like this: let's say I'm a company with 1000 outstanding shares valued at $100 each and want to pay a yearly dividend (for simplicity) of $5/share. All market movements notwithstanding and absent any changes, that means I'm basically giving investors a 5% yearly ROI. But, let's say I instead bought back my shares with all my earnings. The first year, I buy back 5% of the outstanding shares. Now there are 950 outstanding shares and total earnings are still $5000/year. Next year each remaining shareholder gets an extra 5% of earnings per share (this compounds). And rather than pay tax each year on dividends, shareholders defer all their taxes until they exit their position.
One argument is that dividends aren't really worse in this case because investors could still choose to spend the cash on purchasing more shares, accomplishing the same thing. But the deferred taxes change the math.
Hilarious but probably time to leave this site...I got down voted into oblivion for pointing out the US economy would probably collapse due to repo operations 44 days ago...
Too bad, I guess anyone thinking outside the box and pointing out that our herd is going off a cliff is problematic...
That tax incentive was set up deliberately. It's socially valuable for people to have retirement savings, so the rest of us are happy to subsidise you in that saving.
Buybacks are an accident of tax law and ought to be taxed the same way as dividends.
> Buybacks are an accident of tax law and ought to be taxed the same way as dividends.
The problem is it's really the other way around -- reinvested dividends should be taxed like buybacks, i.e. taxed when the purchased shares are sold.
By contrast, taxing buybacks like current dividends would create a really grisly incentive for corporations to hoard a giant pile of money, since that would be the remaining way to defer the tax. This is already what international corporations do with offshore profits because of a similar incentive to defer corporate income tax, and it's a huge problem.
We have a policy of allowing people to avoid tax on investment gains until the investments are cashed out -- this is what a 401k is all about. We might as well make it consistent across the board so it stops creating all of these perverse incentives. (That would reduce the amount of tax collected, but it would also remove most of the justification for taxing capital gains at a lower rate than earned income, so changing both at once would about balance out.)
I'd actually go the other route: tax investment gains like any other income, at the time when they happen, and then the incentive to do buybacks or cash hoarding goes away.
Then you have two new problems, because a lot of investments (e.g. real estate, small businesses) aren't liquid, and you don't necessarily know the value at any given time.
If you own a restaurant and a sports stadium opens next door which causes the value of the land to double overnight, you'd suddenly owe $50,000 in capital gains tax, but what if you don't have $50,000 in cash? You'd have to sell your restaurant to pay the tax on it.
If you write some software for your small business and start to license it to people for $50 each, how much is your corporation which owns the copyright now worth? Ten thousand dollars? Ten billion dollars? It depends how many copies you expect to sell. But the government would have to appraise it. What do you do if they appraise it as worth tens of millions of dollars? You'd immediately owe more than a million dollars in capital gains tax, but it's on the appraised value of an asset that may not turn into that much revenue for years -- or at all. And with no guarantee you could even find anyone willing to pay you that much for the business.
There are good reasons not to collect the tax until the investment is converted to cash.
Right, but none of those problems exist for listed stocks, which trade liquidly and can be readily converted back and forth to cash - indeed that's the whole reason a buyback works. I believe tax law already has a class of things that are considered cash-like - foreign currencies, bullion, that sort of thing - perhaps a good first step would be treating liquid stocks the same way.
Except if they reinvest back to Customer they would still have the same problem today.
And generally speaking better leg room, amenities, and services dont sell more tickets. Your competitor will be gaining on you via even lower price. As shown by all the budget Airline. It was the customer than decides the more expensive plane ticket wasn't worth it.
You should at least mention the criteria for returning capital to shareholders - no NPV positive projects available. We can debate whether or not that is true but it’s not fair to just say “they should have reinvested in the business instead of returning capital”.
I think the main thing is the airline industry is boom and bust, while being quite sensitive to a number of factors out of their control, but because they know they'll get bailed out by the public they have no reason to try saving to make their business robust against such things on their own. These talking points seem to be coming from this article:
It is prudent for an individual to have a rainy day fund for emergencies.
It is also prudent for a corporation to have a rainy day fund for unpredictable events like an upcoming pandemic.
An individual who didn't properly save can go bankrupt in a time of emergency. Likewise, a company which didn't properly save should also go bankrupt in a time of emergency. Look at Apple or Berkshire Hathaway. Both have a massive safety net in the form of liquid cash for hard times.
Businesses typically carry insurance (including business interruption insurance) and unused credit lines for this type of risk, not cash. Governments typically then provide some form of insurance for risks which are commercially uninsurable like war. I think Covid probably falls into that category fairly comfortably.
Meanwhile, Joe Average, who ended up running a food truck when Wells Fargo "right sized" him during the last recession, will find a comfortable slab of concrete upon which to rest his head, under the viaduct.