Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

Again, not right. New people are not necessary at all. People are not in little bubbles with no communications between them. If there's even one person in common between two groups, then infection can/will in time cross between.

An infection travels like a game of 'telephone' passed from one to the next, right across the world.

Quarantine will initially regroup people, but in much smaller groups. If the disease is not yet widespread, then your new cohort will also likely be disease-free. There may be a tiny spike as an infected person in a large group joins a different, small group. But this is a good thing, since that group is smaller, and fewer people will now be at risk.

No, quarantine is the only effective way forward.




Of course it will in time spread. By having a quarantine right now, that time would be shorter, not longer. That’s the point being made.


No. Smaller groups contain and slow down the spread. It extends our response time.


That does not contradict anything the government said. All else being equal, of course smaller groups, in the sense of people seeing fewer other people, is better. That’s not the argument. Nobody is saying “we should see more people”.

All else is not equal. You pull the quarantine lever, you increase social distancing but you also increase local mixing. Costs and benefits. The right choice at any given time depends on the disease spread. Computer modelling and simulation tells us when there is a net benefit.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: