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4x resources delay a crisis by 2 doublings.

If a doubling takes 7 days, that’s just 2 weeks.

R0 (reproduction rate) overwhelms everything. The only way out safely is to greatly reduce R0:

- social distancing: 6-9 feet away from everyone

- avoiding crowds

- Never share utensils; no buffets

- hygienic routines: wash hands, use wipes, close toilet lid before flushing (see Amoy Gardens), etc.

And convince others to do the same.

Italy closed schools when they had just 150 confirmed cases but still in a tragic crisis because people kept socializing.

See a timeline & analysis here: https://www.luca-dellanna.com/how-bad/




I've got an idea for a way to reduce R0 with some voluntary people tracking. I could do with some other developers to plan it.

If anyone's interested, please drop me an email: rls at hwyl.org


Care to explain the downvote? It's a bit depressing trying to do something positive in the current climate.


I didn't downvote, but I can see why others did.

If you have an idea to share, share it. Don't make people jump through the hoop of sending email.

If you are concerned about others stealing your idea, then your comment is essentially spam, because you're using HN as a recruiting tool to build your team. Only YC companies can do that here.

Your motivation might be something other than either of these possibilities. It's easier to downvote and stop thinking about it than to figure out your true intentions.


Thanks for the explanation. Makes sense; I've actually posted the idea a few times (including as an Ask HN) and I was getting fatigued. I absolutely have no interest in making money out of this - just potentially saving lives.

Reposted:

Could a voluntary user-tracking app help reduce the R0 level of the COVID-19 virus?

One of the main challenges with this virus is that carriers of the virus become infectious well before they show symptoms. Consequently, they pass on the infection before they can be isolated.

Apps such as Google Maps already track users' movements to a high level of precision. A similar app could be created that tracked users' movements and notified people they had interacted with if they got infected.

It would work like this:

  - Users' movements are tracked
  - Upon developing a fever (etc.) the user notifies the app
  - The app checks their movements during the estimated period they could have been infectious
  - Every other user who was in their presence for X minutes gets notified and requested to isolate themselves
  - Recursively check those users' movements to see if they may have passed on the virus
Disadvantages I can think of off the top of my head:

  - Requires simultaneous voluntary use by a large proportion of a regional population
  - Possibility of false positives by bad actors (would an occasional false positive be so bad)?
I've had this idea checked with a leading epidemiologist, and he was enthusiastic.

I see this same or similar idea has been written up as a paper (which I've just submitted as a separate story): https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.08.20032946v...


Not a downvoter but my guess is posting "I've got at idea" with zero details and a request for people to contact you is not the type of collaboration people here want to encourage. Others with ideas are simply posting them here and receiving public feedback on them.


Why not say it instead of keeping it secret?


Every ad network and every social media platform need to be saying as much world wide to everyone, 10 times a day.




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