On: San Francisco bans public events holding more than...

[sarchertech]

The number of active cases is down from the peak China. If it continued like this without imported cases the virus would die out as each new infection infects fewer than 1 other person.

[hcknwscommenter → sarchertech]

" each new infection infects fewer than 1 other person"

That is quite an assumption. We shall see, I hope you are right.

[sarchertech → hcknwscommenter]

Well the number of active cases in China is dropping every day, so it's not an assumption, it's just math.

[hcknwscommenter → sarchertech]

The number of active known and reported cases appears to be dropping. There are three assumptions in that sentence.

[sarchertech → hcknwscommenter]

China is still testing aggressively. If the number of active cases were expanding, much less expanding exponentially, the number of reported cases would be more than a handful per day.

It's a pretty good assumption to make.