I get what you're saying, but realize many people will go without wages in these scenarios, so that has to be accounted for. Also, I've seen experts warn that however long things are shut down, once this is ended, the spread will continue. There's no conceivable span of time things will be "shut down" such that the disease will completely stop spreading.
All this to say, yes, of course shut downs must occur to stop acute problems in healthcare systems and try best to protect elderly. And this should absolutely be prioritized over financial markets (though risks here still matter). But it is going to spread.
So when China removes all quarantines, what is going to stop the virus from spreading once again? It will spread (of course at a reduced rate since there is some immunity) until one of the following scenarios occurs:
- Virus has exhausted itself with the majority of the population.
- Vaccine is developed and universally available.
- Virus is eradicated from quarantine (so incredibly unlikely).
I am not an epidemiologist, just writing based off of common sense.
> what is going to stop the virus from spreading once again?
If the quarantines last long enough, the virus will be dead. The hosts will either be dead or will have successfully fought the infection and destroyed the virus. Unless it happens to behave like some viruses that can hide in the nervous system and similar – but there's no indication that that's the case.
A series of staged quarantines, combined with mass testing, should be able to keep it contained until a vaccine is (hopefully) ready in 18 months.
There's really no great alternative to attempting to contain it. We will most likely trade lives for money and then lose the money anyway. Better to just lose the money by paying a big price early on with a radical containment strategy.
All this to say, yes, of course shut downs must occur to stop acute problems in healthcare systems and try best to protect elderly. And this should absolutely be prioritized over financial markets (though risks here still matter). But it is going to spread.