I doubt it'll be a like a light switch where one day there were no Waymo trucks, and the next day there are no conventional trucks.
It will likely be much closer to how Uber disrupted the Taxi Medallion market. You don't hear many people saying, "But think of the poor Taxi Medallion owners." But -- actually -- that was worse. It's literally a piece of paper.
If you buy a truck today, and self-driving trucks are a thing tomorrow -- you still have truck that's likely still holds most of its value.
Part of the reason few people said "think of the poor medallion owners" is because the whole medallion system was a deeply corrupt racket run by organized crime.
Coal miners didn't just light switch off either. And I definitely heard people saying, "Think of the taxi drivers" (which I know is technically different from the medallion owners).
It will likely be much closer to how Uber disrupted the Taxi Medallion market. You don't hear many people saying, "But think of the poor Taxi Medallion owners." But -- actually -- that was worse. It's literally a piece of paper.
If you buy a truck today, and self-driving trucks are a thing tomorrow -- you still have truck that's likely still holds most of its value.