Well, I trust the Kinsey folks at IU, the origin of the data set. That TAM could be valid and indeed a problem specially if wanting to set up a very large user base. I do wonder about the relationship between quality and quantity in this space.
The study is only 2 years old,(pub data 2018) but the data set is indeed 'old' (2012). The survey is muti-wave, would be interesting if they ran the data from 2014-18 through the same statistical tests as this paper.
It is very hard to believe the findings in this abstract based on my connections with US therapists serving alternative communities, primarily in the East and West Coast. Maybe the center of the country is very different (possible and probable). I have no comment on the 4%, although one model change I'd suggest is that, contrary to monogamous dating, non-monogamous folks will come back to the app for more partners even when successfully dating. Here the number of total partners is not the limit, but the allocation of free time and personal energy.
I've noticed that a lot of alternative lifestyle communities cluster aggressively, so I also wonder how evenly distributed the demo here is.
As for ongoing usage, that's an excellent point! If you could grab a solid quarter of the potential userbase willing to pay and keep them paying $10/mo forever, that puts you at $300,000 MRR ($3,600,000 yearly). That's enough to cover AWS bills, a small office (think Regus), and probably a handful of employees in the SF Bay. Or Bay-grade pay for a 100% remote company. Get the 120k number and you're grossing 12 mil / yr. Nothing to sneeze at for sure.
I think it would be a challenge to make much more than a lifestyle business out of this, though.
The study is only 2 years old,(pub data 2018) but the data set is indeed 'old' (2012). The survey is muti-wave, would be interesting if they ran the data from 2014-18 through the same statistical tests as this paper.
It is very hard to believe the findings in this abstract based on my connections with US therapists serving alternative communities, primarily in the East and West Coast. Maybe the center of the country is very different (possible and probable). I have no comment on the 4%, although one model change I'd suggest is that, contrary to monogamous dating, non-monogamous folks will come back to the app for more partners even when successfully dating. Here the number of total partners is not the limit, but the allocation of free time and personal energy.