>But there is some evidence — and we’re working on quantifying it — that coronaviruses do transmit less efficiently in the warmer weather. So it’s possible that we will get some help from that, but I don’t think that will solve the problem, as evidenced by the fact that there’s transmission in Singapore, on the equator.
There have been several research about seasonal influenza and how it correlates with weather, like temperature but especially humidity
- Right now, there's some ongoing research about R0 relative to humidity, and it's not promising. This includes Singapore, but it should also be noted that Singapore has an amazing public health system that will confound using it as an example in both directions.
- Having written a review on the seasonality of influenza, the fact of the matter is we have very little notion of why it's seasonal, and a lot of "just so" stories.
A few years ago (circa 2010 or so) when I was seriously working on epidemic modeling, we tried to look for an effective seasonality model, based on temperature, humidity, etc that worked globally and failed miserably. What seemed to work in one country or area failed completely in others, and vice versa. I'm curious to see if things have improved since then
It's an older paper (circa 2006) but...to be honest, I revisit it occasionally, and the problems we point out are still there. https://jvi.asm.org/content/81/11/5429
Ahahahahah... HN really is a small world. I remember this paper. The section on “indoor heating and AC” stuck to my memory to this day. Back then we were hoping for a seasonality-based follow up to this paper: https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21484 but it was not meant to be.
"warm weather may have an effect on transmission" and "a warm city is dealing with infections" are not mutually exclusive statements.
And for the record, as of a little over a week ago, there were only a dozen cases in Singapore according to the WHO. Even if they were mutually exclusive, Singapore isn't exactly the best example.
Exactly. The comparison with Indonesia is interesting, which has a similar climate, but isn't as rich or developed as Singapore.
Air conditioning is actually very conducive to colds and the like. When you go from outside to inside you're usually sweaty and the air conditioning tends to make you too cold until you dry out. I've caught way more sniffles in the tropics than in the freezing climates.
Anecdotally, I flew from Bali to Singapore today and there seemed to be a lot more sniffles and coughing in Singapore. In Bali the architecture is very open with lots of fresh air, scooters being popular for transport whereas in Singapore they tend more to sitting together in air conditioned boxes of various types (buildings, busses etc).
The real takeaway from the 74 Million piece is that information about HVAC in American schools is difficult to come by. It would certainly be interesting to look at COVID-19 in schools vis-a-vis A/C, but good luck prying information from the school districts about either infections or air conditioning. Perhaps it would be easier in a tropical country like SG where A/C is more of a necessity than a luxury.
Also the coronavirus doesn’t really seem present in countries in the Southern Hemisphere except for some imported cases in Australia. There’s nothing being heard of South America or Africa which could be because of their hot climate.
There have been several research about seasonal influenza and how it correlates with weather, like temperature but especially humidity
https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01634...
https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/173/2/127/99316