Elop has given a credible reply to this argument: Android would put them on the fastest track imaginable to commoditization. Nokia's support and supply-chain would have taken Android from the marketshare leader to the undisputed ruler of the smartphone market. In this kind of atmosphere, it could be safely surmised that no manufacturer would have any leverage with Google and there would be very little opportunity for interesting differentiation.
> Android would put them on the fastest track imaginable to commoditization
The way I see it they are on that track anyway. As far as I can tell they got absolutely no hard concessions from MS about control of WP7 - I'm sure Microsoft said lots of nice things but when it comes to the crunch Nokia has to be delusional if they think Microsoft is going to let them have any real influence over WP7. If you are going to get commoditized it might as well be in a market that is a known success rather than one which might totally fail.
> In this kind of atmosphere, it could be safely surmised that no manufacturer would have any leverage with Google
Nokia is easily big enough and powerful enough that they could take Android their own way. They could forgo licensing Google's apps and put their own on, thus maintaining a foot in the ecosystem but remaining entirely independent. Android would have given them a lot more options than just becoming subservient to Google (which, even if they did do, I would maintain is better than being subservient to MS).
This deal is strange enough to me that I half suspect there is another surprise - perhaps MS and Nokia joining together to sue the living daylights out of Google with every patent in their arsenals.
