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How the internet helped crack the Astros' sign-stealing case (espn.com)
66 points by danso on Jan 18, 2020 | hide | past | favorite | 64 comments



I assume there are some baseball fans here on HN ...

This is, in my opinion, a watershed moment here for how Baseball is going to deal with technology. After the Moneyball "revolution" lots of people, both in the game and casual fans, talked about how technology would again "revolutionize" the sport[0]. Things like player evaluations and injury prediction + prevention were what was mostly talked about (this was back in ~2014-2015 or so). There really hasn't been much talk about this since then, as far as I can tell, or it's been kept as a trade secret by teams. What's happened with this Astros scandal is something else entirely. This was not the future of the game we wanted, and there will need to be a philosophical discussion had in short order about what we're going to allow in the future (what they did was not).

Complicating all of this is that Houston winning the last game of the season in 2017 was largely viewed as a "victory" for the stats nerds over the traditionalists[1], and was predicted in 2014[2]. So the idea that the "technology" they used to do this wasn't just learning things other teams couldn't about their own players, but essentially a gimmick to steal signs not only casts a shadow on the integrity of the game but also calls into question the methodology itself to a certain extent - though to be honest I think the argument is pretty much over at this point on stats vs traditionalists.

[0]https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/07/08/billy-beane-technology-wil...

[1]https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/10/24/houston-astros-sports-illu...

[2]https://www.si.com/longform/astros/index.html


> casts a shadow on the integrity of the game

MLB. FIFA. OOC. ... let me know when you can see a difference, lol.


Well, the latter two seem institutionally corrupt in a way MLB is not - at least today.


The feigned shock at steroids. The shakedowns of cities for ballparks while offering a suite to the city council and other politicians. The corruption is just a local flavor.


>The feigned shock at steroids.

Barry Bonds still isn't in the Hall of Fame. Neither is Roger Clemons. The institution seems to be reacting appropriately in my book.

>The shakedowns of cities...

Okay, you got me there I guess. Which stadium are you thinking of though? My understanding of the Braves stadium deal(most recent stadium deal that comes to mind) is that the team is required to pay off the county's bonds raised over some period of time (I'm not from Atlanta, so this is just my recollection). I suppose Target Field in Minneapolis was kind of a raw deal. I can meet you half way on thinking that a lot of these projects are in fact crap for local communities, but I think we've seen this phenomenon in the NFL more than MLB. Teams like the Rams and the Chargers basically held their local governments hostage for a new stadium and when they didn't get one they moved. This hasn't happened in MLB for a long time.


The MLB isn't in charge of who gets into the Baseball Hall of Fame.


I’m not sure what you mean. Veteran players are basically the ones who decide. The system works essentially as a check on the institution of Baseball itself. If you mean to say that owners and administrators don’t have much say then, yeah, I guess you’re right. But I wouldn’t change the system as it exists today.


Basically I mean that, yeah, and it's the writers who do the voting -- Bonds and Clemens are on the ballot.


IOC


Jomboy Media is worth checking out, even if you don’t follow or care about baseball. His breakdowns are fun to watch.

For example: https://youtu.be/W1pJRRJntUo


For the uninitiated, how do you steal signs by making a banging noise? What is a "sign", anyway? What electronics are involved? The article doesn't explain anything.


During a game, the catcher and the pitcher have to both know what pitch is being thrown so the catcher can catch it - it’s hard to catch breaking balls unless you know to expect one. So the game has evolved that the catcher normally “calls” games, eg decides what pitch the pitcher is going to throw. Catchers make careers on how well they call games. They are the smartest players on the field, and have to remember the stats and approaches for every batter on the other team, not only for the starting pitcher that day but also all the relievers that might be used in a game. They communicate the pitch to be thrown to the pitcher using hand signals, normally with the non-catching hand on the inside of their thigh so the batter can’t see the sign.

But anyone behind the pitcher can of course see the sign, and after seeing a few tens of pitches at most can figure out which sign corresponds to which pitch. Knowing what pitch is coming is a significant advantage to the hitter.

It’s legal for a runner on second to watch the catcher and convey those signs to the pitcher, but in MLB it’s strictly illegal to use “technology” - meaning, mostly, optics or electronics.


To add to this, the Astros has basically installed cameras in their stadium that allowed the coaches and players in the dugout to know which sign the catcher has signalled (the dugouts are behind the catcher, so you cannot normally see the catchers sign from there).

The dugout then used the drum banging method to convey that information to the batter.


The catcher needs to know what sort of pitch the pitcher will throw so he can set up correctly to catch the pitch. To make sure catcher and pitcher are on the same page, each pitch starts with the catcher giving hand signals to the pitcher to suggest he throws a specific type of pitch. These hand signals are what is meant by "signs."

An opposing team can "steal signs" by looking at the catcher while he's giving his signs and then somehow relay that information to the batter. That way the batter knows what type of pitch is coming. Usually the information is given to the batter by some other type of signal, that's what "banging on the garbage can" was, a signal that a specific type of pitch was coming. (In this case they were signaling if a pitch was going to be an offspeed pitch)

So basically what happened was Astros set up a camera in the outfield aimed at the opposing team's catcher. The catcher would signal for, for example, a breaking ball. Astros employee viewing video feed would see this and then bang on the garbage can to indicate to the batter that the pitch would be offspeed.

It's important to know that "stealing signs" the old fashioned way (without cameras/technology) is legal and part of the game. This is why catchers will give multiple signs when runners are on base, because base runners may be able to look at the catcher while he's giving his signs and relay information to the batter. When the catcher is using multiple signs there's an agreement beforehand between the catcher and the pitcher which of the multiple signs is the "real" sign.

There's a Wikipedia page on sign stealing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sign_stealing


Hopefully someone who actually knows baseball can correct me if I get this wrong, but:

In baseball, the pitcher stands in the middle of a diamond-shaped field. They throw the ball towards the opposing team's batter, who tries to hit it. The pitcher's goal is to get the ball past the opposing batter to the catcher, who is squatting on the ground behind the batter.

The catcher, having full view of all the players and being close to the batter, can opt to signal to the pitcher how best to throw the ball to get it past the batter. For example, they may raise 1 finger to throw it as fast as possible ("fastball"), 2 to make it _seem_ look a fastball but actually slow it down ("changeup"), 3 to curve the ball, etc. The catcher does this such that only the pitcher has a good view of it. This is called a "sign".

It's legal for the opposing team to try to see what the catcher is signaling and inform the batter, but not to do so with electronic equipment. The Astros were using video cameras to get a close look at the catcher's signs, then banging a metal drum to inform the batter of what kind of pitch was being signaled.

The article has an embedded Tweet which has a good video demonstrating all this.


I'm basing this on a single article I read that was a little more detailed.

A "sign" is a hand signal the catcher makes to the pitcher, indicating which pitch (fastball / curveball / whatever) the pitcher will throw. If the pitcher wants to throw something else, he shakes his head, and the catcher signals something different. Repeat until the pitcher is happy.

The pitcher's rejection is visible to everyone, but the catcher's signal is hidden.

"Stealing signs" does not refer to stealing the key that translates between hand signals and pitch types, so that you can tell by looking at the signal what pitch will be thrown. That's considered obvious. (I mention this because I assumed that's what "stealing signs" would mean.)

Instead, "stealing signs" refers to looking at the catcher when he signals, so that you see the signal. Interpreting it is then up to you. Oddly, this is explicitly legal if you do it by having a runner on second base, but illegal by any other means.

The electronics involved are a small camera mounted somewhere aimed at the catcher. The banging noise is a simple code -- one bang for signal A; two bangs for signal B; three bangs for signal C... the function is to communicate the signal from the guy off in the bowels of the stadium viewing the camera feed, to the batter who wants to know what pitch to prepare for.


Thanks, and also to the others who replied. It seems a bit crazy that anybody would try that given that sooner or later somebody would surely figure out what was going on.


Electronically speaking, it’s worth noting there’s a current rumor and image hunt going on on Twitter of the Astros possibly using “buzzers”, small radio—activated vibrating devices taped to the body, to steal signs back around when this was going on in 2017.

As has been said, teams have been stealing signs since the beginning of the sport and it’s an understood or “gentleman’s” rule that it’s acceptable — as long no technology is used and it’s not blatant. However, teams have used body buzzers, buzzers and signals buried by the bases and similar electric and radio devices for close to 100 years or more now, since electricity itself became ubiquitous.


That seems a bit less detectable than the trash can method. Why the technological regression?


From the recent pictures, there’s a faint outline of what looks like a “wire” taped to the right shoulder of Jose Altuve, that you can see through his jersey. Whether it’s an actual buzzer, an unfortunate crease or something else, is what’s under speculation.

I think they went with the trash can banging because it was somewhat low tech, and maybe less likely or believable for people to pick up on.


The catcher will signal a pitch with their hand between their legs. One finger for a fastball, two for a curve, something like that. The reason this communication is necessary is so the catcher sets up correctly to catch e.g. a breaking ball.

What the Astros did was zoom in a camera from the outfield to see this and feed that video straight into the dugout. The person in the dugout with the feed would bang a garbage can (or something) to signal audibly to the person up at bat. Knowing what pitch is coming is a massive advantage for a batter.

It really has to happen in a matter of a second or two in order to work.


I thought they were better on the road that season? It's not clear sign stealing helps much oddly enough.


In the commissioner's report, some players that were interviewed said that they felt the banging was more distracting than useful.


Before the pitcher throws the ball, the catcher signals with his fingers what kind of pitch to throw.

Pitchers switch between straight fastballs and slower curveballs and a pitch called a change up that looks like a fastball delivery but comes across the plate slower.

Obviously if the hitter knew what to expect he’d do a lot better. So the astros had a camera that was looking at the signs and feeding them to the dugout. Then when they knew that a good pitch to hit was coming, they’d make a banging sound. It’s not actually super sophisticated.

You’re actually allowed to steal signs from like a runner on second — you’re not allowed to use a camera to do it.


A sign is when the crouching catcher flashes a hand gesture between their legs to indicate to the pitcher which type of pitch to throw against the batter. The Astros adjusted the placement of a camera to better see the catcher’s signs, someone on a laptop in the locker room watching the camera would see the sign, bang on a trash can to make a loud noise the dugout and presumably the batter to know when (usually) a fastball was coming. Fastballs have less curve on them, making it easier for the batter to hit when they know one’s coming.


Two points, according to the article (unless I misread something):

They were hopping off the center field feed. This is the feed that viewers at home see when a pitch is thrown. If someone spent the time at home, you could catalog all the signs between a pitcher and a catcher just fine.

They were looking for offspeed pitches, i.e changeups. This is a pitch used to fake out a batter through a speed change. Most standard pitches are thrown in the 85+ mph range, including the breaking (curve, slider) ball types. Fastballs, with current players, are in the mid-90s+ with a few throwing 100. A changeup is significantly (relatively) slower than these pitches so a batter will swing much earlier than normal and completely miss the ball. However, if the player guesses right or is told this particular pitch is coming, it’s pretty much like hitting a ball off a tee, for all intents and purposes.


The Astros also adjusted the placement and angle of that center field feed in order to get a better unobstructed view of the catcher’s signs around that time as well. Before and after images showing the difference of position from what was supposed to be the same camera and how much better the view was.


Interesting. Wasn’t mentioned in the article but I’ll take your word for it. I mistook your original statement to mean they had a second camera in that position. My sibling is a more enthusiastic sports fan (though baseball was the one sport I actually played) than me, so I’ve been getting most of my info from them. This is the first writeup on the matter I’ve gone through.


I think the HN baseball fan crowd is the perfect audience for this paper, entitled "A Mathematical Analysis of Catcher/Pitcher Encryption Schemes."

https://courses.csail.mit.edu/6.857/2018/project/mlancast-sa...


Thanks, sharing this with my fantasy league.


If the Astros were using the standard public TV camera view, why can't there be some real time image analysis that blurs the signs? If we can instantly recognize millions of faces, it seems pretty simple to blur a catcher's hands when making a sign.


There's no way they were using the TV feed - there'd be too much lag to be useful. The 'bangs' were just way too fast. They might have been using a feed destined for broadcast... Adding blur between camera and broadcast just adds a layer of complexity. Nothing stops the team from installing their own camera. The league shouldn't have to add technology censors to prevent a team from cheating.


They had their own CCTV camera with a good zoom up in their own stadium, above the broadcast cameras. They only had the advantage on their home field.


As a long time baseball fan, the "punishment" is a joke. This is one of the worst cheating scandals in baseball history and Rob Manfred (Commissioner of MLB) basically gave a slap on the wrist. Every team/player in the league would be willing to trade this "punishment" for a World Series title.


They really should have stripped away Astro's championship title, not sure what their justification was. Why would the Astros want to keep this championship title in their cabinet anyway? To remind themselves and their fans of what their team did that year?


I think the best part about the whole thing is that there are so many memes accompanying the investigation.

I'm not sure however, that the internet really helped crack the case. Th article shows that the internet came to similar conclusions as the real MLB investigation.


I read an article today from 2018 that mentioned the Astros banging trash cans. Apparently MLB has known about these allegations for a while and didn't investigate. It took it coming out on social media for them to finally launch the investigation.


Can you link to the article?



I'm fascinated by the shift in internet culture to allow this. In the early 2010s MLB would have done their best to remove unauthorized clips from the web. It would have always been done as 'copyright violation'. But, the shift democratizes the content itself - and makes it available for critique/analysis/comedy.


Baseball Savant [1] might just blow your mind. It is far and away the best stats/data site provided by a pro sports league, likely anywhere on Earth. The search page offers about 40 ways to narrow a search, and once you've found what you are looking for it can generate a dozen or two different charts and graphics. On many of them, any circle representing a pitch is a clickable link that brings up the TV video of that pitch. You really like the data you found? No problem, there's a button to download it in CSV format, with about 95 columns of data for each pitch. Do whatever you want with it as long as its non-commercial.

There are conferences where people go and present research and other cool things they do with the data. MLB sends people to them and most teams do as well. If you present something cool, you'll have half a dozen teams asking you for an interview.

[1] https://baseballsavant.mlb.com


Baseball Savant includes videos for every pitch through 2017 [1]. You can get there through the search page [2].

[1] https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=62a1c77c...

[2] https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search


The research done by ordinary people (not league or club personnel) created a situation where the league had to respond. Without that, I don’t think an investigation would have taken place.


I will just say this. I am a Dodgers fan and Houston's cheating may well have ruined Kershaw's legacy, one of the best pitchers to have ever lived and played baseball. Shame shame Shame.


Similar for me as a Detroit fan with Justin Verlander. Half of me is glad to see his World Series win wasn’t revoked, but the other half says he was party to the cheating and should have been punished. But the shame is he’s one of the best pitchers in the game without cheating... why did he do it? Shame indeed.


Well, yours is the converse, no? Kershaw lost in part to Houston's sign-stealing, Verlander won.


And then Verlander lost against the Nationals, because they stole the signs to him. This is the most plausible explanation for his losses. And the internet didn't help there, rather the opposite.


Not a Doyers and Kershaw fan, but I agree with his legacy. Glad to see Darvish vindicated if only a little bit.


A few questions: 1) at best this happens at~50% of the games. The Astros won the series in LA that year. Did they find a way to cheat everywhere? 2) what is the end game here? The Astros have won exactly 1 World Series. Hardly a huge disparity. 3) do you think they’re the only team??? 4) what rules were broken? 5) is it wrong for a base runner to scream change-up if they are on 2nd base? Disclaimer: I’m from Houston and of course I want the Astros to win but I don’t think a huge advantage was had here. One could easily get just as outraged by the Yankees having a bottomless bank account to pay their salaries. They Yankees paid 218mm vs 168mm for the Astros. Both teams are on the larger end of the spectrum but I would argue that smaller markets have a huge disadvantage vs the major cities.

I’m disappointed that the Astros lost this year but I don’t feel compelled to find a reason the Nationals beat us this year. At the end of the day our pitchers failed(ahem Verlander) and our batters couldn’t hit the superior pitchers in dc. Ironically the “cheaters” couldn’t cheat their way to a second victory. This seems like another case of Twitter and social media amplifying things that don’t matter.


> 1) at best this happens at~50% of the games.

That is an assumption. We don't know all the facts yet. Some are suggesting the camera could have been nothing more than a smartphone and there is a source from within the Astros org that say some of the players wore electronic buzzers under their shoulder to signal the call to them. There is no reason to rule out signals were known on the road as well.

> 2) what is the end game here?

Stop cheaters from winning titles and saving the sport from ruin like cheating did to the sport of boxing.

> 3) do you think they’re the only team?

Probably not but both existing and former Astros speaking up tells us Astros were doing it at an unprecedented level.

> 4) what rules were broken?

First of all sign stealing using technology goes all the way back to 1876. Illegal sign stealing involves mechanical or electronic technology; the rules regarding this have become more stringent over time and continue to evolve. This is also why an 8 second delay was added to the broadcast feed.

> 5) is it wrong for a base runner to scream change-up if they are on 2nd base?

Screaming anything while the opposing pitcher is about to throw I suspect is against the rules but stealing and signalling the signs in other ways is permitted. This is typically done by the base runner using closed fist or open hands.

> I don’t think a huge advantage was had here.

The Astros obviously thought it was enough of an advantage to break the rules to do it. The Astros went from dead last in the AL in strikeout rate in 2016 to 1st in '17 and their strikeout to walk ratio was an extreme outlier compared to the rest of the league.

> Ironically the “cheaters” couldn’t cheat their way to a second victory.

Ironic how? Teams were onto them by then. Once you know your opponent is stealing your signs you can use that against them.


Sign stealing is a part of baseball since forever (i.e. with a runner on second, like you mentioned). That's not the problem with what Houston did. They used a camera in the outfield to steal the signs, which is against the rules. They are the only team where there is evidence this happened and they only did it the year they won the World Series, so yeah, that seems like it made a difference.

As a Pirates fan, I feel you about the salary issue, but everyone is playing by the same rules, so it's not cheating for a team to spend more. It's a pretty orthogonal issue.


For 5, usually a pitcher and catcher will through multiple signs with a runner on second to scramble the signal, and usually you don’t get enough pitches in to determine which sign is real. With the aid of a camera, the Astros were getting these signals very quickly even though teams were suspicious and using “runner on second” signs against them often.


> ... I don't think a huge advantage was had here.

I have too hard disagree on this. Knowing the pitch is a huge advantage in baseball.


I don't see this as an issue, unless expressively forbidden.

The goal is to win, by all means necessary. Like war.

I'm almost 60 now, but in my twenties I thought "why don't teams have people in the stands to do just this, steal the signs."

I was a phreaker back then and always wanted to call the Twins dugout just to see if I could.


Sports is explicitly not like war. There's actual rulebooks, and regulators with the power to completely ban teams and players.


Stealing signs using a cameras/video/technology is forbidden.

Four people have already lost their jobs over this, additionally, Astros were fined $5 million and lost four draft picks.


I’m waiting for machine learning to predict play calls for baseball and football. It shouldn’t be too hard if it hasn’t already been done. Based on the offensive coordinator and things like field position, etc it should be easy to make predictions as to what that human would make based on past choices.

I wonder if that would be considered cheating though If they only used past performance and not real time signal stealing.


No they use that now. They have stats for matchups vs where the ball will be hit, etc. Based on this the defensive will move. It has been working.


Why not just use a cannon to shoot the ball?

Ideas like yours take all the fun out of play and ruin it for everyone else. We all know we can build machines to do things better than humans, but so what? It's the uncertainty and imperfection and second guessing that makes a game enjoyable to watch or play in the first place.


> Why not just use a cannon to shoot the ball?

Someone who knows the rules better might answer?

I assume the pitcher has to be registered in the team and as such has to be human.

If you have a pitcher set it off, one assumes it's not regulated equipment. If you have a disability it still has rules around what you can use.

I'd be interested to know though. The Last Boy Scout does kinda ask this question, that's why it's such an amazing opening scene.


There's a lot of money and ego at stake in sports world. Enjoyment is a very distant concern.


Enjoyment is why attention and money flows toward sports. Hence the swingeing penalties now that this misbehavior have come to light. If the game isn't relatable to enough fans it starts to die.


They will start training on coach body language, things like steps, leaning over, covering his mouth, head movement...

I'm sure coaches have some kind of tell when they get excited about calling a play-action deep ball after the run game got 3 straight first downs.


It is possible today to do this.

The question is ... should we?

I'm old school about this game and my answer is emphatically "no".




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