You're demanding... a first principles model of stock market prediction (something that obviously doesn't exist) before you'll buy an ad hoc napkin result showing that we're probably due for a correction in the relatively near term (something basically everyone agrees on)? Seriously?
I mean, this logic spins around too: if you think the market won't dip, what's your reasoning? The fact that you aren't a billionaire tells me you probably don't know any better than anyone else. At least this metric has empirical data (there's a chart right there in the article!) to back it up, and it was "developed" by a seasoned practitioner who most of us would agree is better at this stuff than randos on HN. I mean... it passes the smell test if nothing else.
I mean, this logic spins around too: if you think the market won't dip, what's your reasoning? The fact that you aren't a billionaire tells me you probably don't know any better than anyone else. At least this metric has empirical data (there's a chart right there in the article!) to back it up, and it was "developed" by a seasoned practitioner who most of us would agree is better at this stuff than randos on HN. I mean... it passes the smell test if nothing else.