That's a great chart and a simple metric (total stock value / US GDP). I like it.
I certainly can't predict a crash but I find it hard to argue anything other than we are closer to the top than the bottom of the current cycle. At some point there'll be a reversion to mean, which always overcorrects in the short term.
That could be tomorrow, a month from now, a year from now or 5 years from now. Who knows? This bull market has certainly gone on for years longer than anyone would've predicted.
And the thing is we're also in a period of wealth creation unlike anything seen since probably Standard Oil and the railroads of the 19th century. This isn't the dot-com era of pets.com and the like. Apple, Google and Facebook generate profits of a kind probably not seen in a century or more (in relative terms).
Because the monetary regimes of, say, the late 20s, or the early 50s, or even into the late 70s and into the deregulatory periods of the 1980s are so vastly different than what exists now, that a comparison across vast timeframes would be completely specious.
Not sure that is explicitly what they were trying to accomplish, but that is what I got out of the graphic.
I certainly can't predict a crash but I find it hard to argue anything other than we are closer to the top than the bottom of the current cycle. At some point there'll be a reversion to mean, which always overcorrects in the short term.
That could be tomorrow, a month from now, a year from now or 5 years from now. Who knows? This bull market has certainly gone on for years longer than anyone would've predicted.
And the thing is we're also in a period of wealth creation unlike anything seen since probably Standard Oil and the railroads of the 19th century. This isn't the dot-com era of pets.com and the like. Apple, Google and Facebook generate profits of a kind probably not seen in a century or more (in relative terms).
So yeah, we live in unusual times.