I think time restriction AND caloric restriction matter. Yes, a narrow eating window reduces the odds of overeating. But it also gives the body a chance to lower insulin levels during the fasted period, lowering the potential for insulin resistance. This is why it's bad advice to eat many small meals throughout the day--it keeps your insulin high at all times, never giving your body a chance to actually burn fat and likely resulting in reduced metabolic rate when done concurrently with caloric restriction.
