With the number of enemies made, the fact that she stands out and the fact that she knows a lot about the higher ups the chances of her walking around free are rather low, and the chances of her sleeping with the fishes probably better than even. How she ever thought she would walk away from this all scot-free is a mystery to me.
This just seems like speculation based on watching mafia movies. The article speculates she's alive. The Ignatov family seems involved in various frauds, so I wouldn't view her as an innocent woman who got in too deep. She knew what she as doing and has family connections.
Also I am not sure what "she stands out" even means. Is this a way of saying she's not white? That's not really a problem. In a ton of EMEA countries she'd blend right in.
> This just seems like speculation based on watching mafia movies.
People get killed for far less.
> The article speculates she's alive.
And I'm speculating she isn't.
> The Ignatov family seems involved in various frauds, so I wouldn't view her as an innocent woman who got in too deep. She knew what she as doing and has family connections.
I never said she did not know what she was doing.
> Also I am not sure what "she stands out" even means.
It means that there are tons of photographs of her and she may blend in in some places but even there a little bit of reward money will almost certainly turn her up unless she goes full Osama bin Laden and we all know how that ended. True, he had more powerful enemies but she also has less powerful friends than whole nations willing to help hiding her.
Sincerely though, if not pop culture, what is this prediction based on?
What base rate information do you have about criminals who are extrajudicially executed? What information about who in the criminal underworld knows how much are you conditioning on in order to get a distribution that integrates out to >0.5 here, as opposed to >0.9, or <0.1?
Just based on what’s publicly accessible, it seems totally implausible even to put a educated guess on the odds of something like this.
I have - or rather had - a cousin who got a bullet in the back of his head courtesy of his best friend for less than $100K. So my base rate may be a bit higher than average but it definitely isn't zero and we're talking very large amounts of money here.
Let's turn that around: how many hard core criminals do you know that end up living to a ripe old age? Even Bulger didn't make it and he tried real hard.
People get shot over things that amount to less than a minimum wage paycheck, that doesn't mean she is dead. Your example of Bulger is bad, he was 89 at the time of his death, that's 10 years older than the avg European male's lifespan. If John McAfee's still alive, she could also still be alive.
> People get shot over things that amount to less than a minimum wage paycheck, that doesn't mean she is dead.
No, just that there is a fair chance.
> Your example of Bulger is bad, he was 89 at the time of his death, that's 10 years older than the avg European male's lifespan.
My point was: and yet he didn't make it. His end wasn't exactly peaceful by any stretch of the imagination and he was an outlier for living that long. He only managed because he laid low for a long time (16 years!), if not for that he'd have been killed in the same manner or worse long before.
Bulger is a bad example for only one reason: he turned information on the Mafia over to the authorities, which is a bit of a career limiting move for a criminal. Note that between his arrival in the penitentiary where he was murdered and his demise only a scant few hours passed.
But still, as you correctly state, he lived to 89, which is older than most and that's why he's exceptional, a hardened criminal, former gang leader able to live to that age is noteworthy.
We agree she could be dead or end up dead over this, but that could be said for any criminal scammer.
Madoff isn't dead, and he ran the biggest scam in the world.
There is nothing unique about this case, or any specific piece of evidence you can point to that indicates her death, other than a hunch. Bulger lasted 16 years laying low, why not her?
People get killed for far less if all involved are very poor. As you go up the socio-economic ladder the price becomes higher, so it makes sense that different people have wildly differing experiences.
I think the problem is your "better than even" chance she's "swimming with the fishes", based on little evidence. She doesn't look terribly distinctive. Being in a friendly country around friendly people or even in a neutral country under an assumed identity while being quiet can last you a long time. You do not have to go full Osama bin Laden.
Some people speculate that she never intended for this scam to get this big, but that she for some reason could not shut it down when it became huge (she owed shady investors too much money, she got greedy, etc).
