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That doesn’t always mean you should have the surgery any time soon.

Suppose that surgery can be put off for 10 years without any loss of effectiveness or short term risk of death. Now you’re going to wait even if it’s eventually a good idea. Some people that either have the surgery or waited are killed off by other issues, making the waiting group have a higher expected life expectancy overall.

That’s just one example where seemingly useful treatments are less useful than initially assumed.




Or 10 years later the surgery is seen as less or more effective, or a better version of it is developed.




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