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Toyota and BMW both are dragging their heels with EVs and are mostly focusing on hybrids and hydrogen. IMHO both are a dead end and an expensive mistake.

Battery prices and range are on track to improve for the foreseeable future and most other manufacturers are basically preparing to massively increase production of the dozens of EVs they announced in the next few years. There are very few manufacturers left that are not fully committed to EVs at this point. Toyota, Mazda, BMW, Fiat, and a few others basically.

BMW already is signalling they expect issues with market share, growth, profit etc. and just appointed a new CEO to fix this. In other words, they are late to this game, they know it, and are now acting to fix this. I know less about Toyota but they seem to be very stubbornly ignoring battery EVs so far. IMHO that signals long term trouble for them as well. Unless they find a way to catch up in a hurry. Either way, they are late and the rest of the industry is not waiting for them. IMHO Nissan and Honda, are in much better shape.

For most manufacturers the key game the next ten years is going to be securing availability of low cost batteries with decent range while balancing that cost with the absolute massive cost of dismantling their legacy manufacturing and supply industry. I expect layoffs directly related to that in Germany may affect tens of thousands or possibly hundreds of thousands of jobs across the thousands of companies that make up the car industry and their suppliers over the next decade. BMW just announced layoffs for 6000 in Germany. My guess is that won't be the last time.

Tesla is where they are in the market right now because they decided years ago to produce battery packs in house and recently to also start producing their own battery cells. That gives them a cost and technical advantage. They have no legacy business and every penny that comes in is invested in more production capacity, lowering cost, and improving technology.

VW is investing tens of billions to catch up in the next few years. IMHO this is exactly the right thing to do for them and I think Dieselgate helped speed up the decision making. The ID.3 is an important milestone for them and when they start shipping this in volume in a few years, it will no doubt affect the rest of the industry. They are already talking about Id.4 and my guess is they are not stopping there. I think there's a good chance they might wipe out or flat out absorb a few of their competitors in the process. BMW for example. Meanwhile Tesla has at least five years and probably closer to ten years where they are basically enjoying volume and cost advantages essentially unchallenged. I'd be surprised if they don't establish themselves as one of the top car manufacturers during that time.




BMW has an electric model just like Nissan, Renault. And it's a good car too, albeit kind of weird looking and with limited range. It's quite perfect for city driving, has an optional scooter engine if your battery is dead. I'm not a BMW fan but I like the i3, because it's everything other BMW models aren't. Most traditional car manufacturers are testing the EV waters with compact minis. Tesla is in the US market so of course they had to have a SUV. They don't have a pickup truck though.


Yes, the i3, which they are discontinuing. Most of their lineup is hybrids and ICE vehicles. They do have an electric mini which they recently announced as well as a few more models that they announced. Lets just say they are moving but slowly and rather late.


Yes, they're quite late to the show. Probably because their customers want muscle cars: hooligan M2s, hideous oversized fastback SUVs or luxury sedans. Most of their customer base wants cars with at least 250 mile range to be able to commute with on the autobahn, which they are unable to offer yet. Not EV minis. BMW blamed 20% revenue losses on EV R&D and emissions compiance.

Daimler, a company with similar clientelle, is moving even more slowly. At least they announced the EQC SUV, an EQV van, the EQ sedan. Which are of course all vapour yet. We'll see how good they are when they do arrive. Daimler does have have the truck division to keep them afloat and a two seat supermini, the Smart electric drive, which barely qualifies as a car.


Both are getting a lot of competition from Tesla currently. Apparently some of their former customers want fast electrical vehicles. Also, trucks are going electric. So, Daimler might have a fight on their hand there as well.




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