I don't shy away from buying DVD players. The companies that make them are the ones on the hook there. But I certainly wouldn't want to build one.
Again: We have no guarantees from the MPEG-LA that they won't turn around tomorrow and demand outrageous royalties from anyone using H.264 videos. We also know that they are able to do so. The only reason it isn't so today is by their good grace. That is real uncertainty, and it seems like a valid cause for worry (Google would have been better off if they'd treated Java so cautiously). Am I mistaken somewhere, and this situation is actually not plausible? I'm not personally involved with either camp — they just seem to have the facts on their side, while all any pro-H.264 folk ever respond with is ad hominem and dismissals.
We have no guarantees from the MPEG-LA that they won't turn around tomorrow and demand outrageous royalties from anyone using H.264 videos.
Yes, we do know that, for the same reason that they don't start charging end users of DVD players. They have legally binding agreement.
For free video, H264 is permanantly free. They can not turn around and change this.
For non-free video, they have established pricing that is locked-in until 2016. And then you're saying, but then they'll screw me, right? Wrong, MPEG-LA states in their contract: "For the protection of licensees, royalty rates applicable to specific license grants or specific licensed products will not increase by more than ten percent (10%) at each renewal."
So enough with the FUD please. H264, amongst licensed technologies, is probably one of the clearest there is and with the least minefields.
To me it is about permission and free legal redistribution. If H.264 were to become an entrenched part of HTML5 video, then freely distributed browsers would greatly suffer. Open source browsers like Konqueror would be left by the roadside. This is why I think Google is doing a good thing. HTML5 video suffers in the short term, but it is a good thing for the future.
Again: We have no guarantees from the MPEG-LA that they won't turn around tomorrow and demand outrageous royalties from anyone using H.264 videos. We also know that they are able to do so. The only reason it isn't so today is by their good grace. That is real uncertainty, and it seems like a valid cause for worry (Google would have been better off if they'd treated Java so cautiously). Am I mistaken somewhere, and this situation is actually not plausible? I'm not personally involved with either camp — they just seem to have the facts on their side, while all any pro-H.264 folk ever respond with is ad hominem and dismissals.